If You Can't Stand The Bullishness, Look at the Charts!

I can't stand it anymore! After this record advance in September everyone is bullish. Investor sentiment is bullish, CNBC is bullish, even I am bullish (actually have been since late July). Perhaps I simply am a rebel and must feel like I'm marching to a different drum beat, but upon waking this morning I embarked on a mission to prove or disprove the case for the rampant optimism I'm seeing everywhere. While I'd normally provide chart upon chart of manipulated macro economic data I simply started drawing lines on 3 year weekly charts. I'll keep the commentary to a minimum, but leave you with a string of charts that highlight significant markets I follow.  Please note, I will indicate several areas I'm watching for a breakout, but to be honest we've seen a pattern of breakouts through important levels where everyone is watching just to see significant reversals once everyone gets on board.  . I'm putting these levels in my system so I can be alerted and watching for continued momentum that is maintained.




SPX (The 1150 level still seems to be resistance) - no breakout yet.

XLE (Energy) - Watching $56.50 here.

XLI (Industrials)- XLI looks like it has poked its head above resistance.  There is that long term downward sloping trendline still overhead, but this tells me that XLI could run another dollar or so before testing this.

SMH (Semi-conductors) - $28.75 would be interesting as this has not broken out yet

XLF (Financials)  - I posted this chart last week and it has been very helpful in showing that there is no breakout in financials.  There was a punch through to $15 and a quick reversal back inside the trendline.  Of all the charts I'm posting, I think this is one of the most useful.

LQD - Investment Grade Corporate Bonds-(Breakout has obviously occurred.  In fact, we should expect a drop back into that long term channel, however corporate bonds have been the beneficiary of much of the government's attempts to force investors to increase their risk and drive them out of CDs and money markets.  Traditionally, we'd expect the equity markets to rally when LQD goes lower, however that typical correlation has been on hold since May 2008 when all asset values collapsed and enjoyed a subsequent rise from the ashes. 

LQD with SPX overlay -Has LQD rallied too far and does a correction in bonds suggest more upside for the $SPX?

SLV - (Silver) - Sure, this is clearly a breakout!  SLV is above its previous peak of $20.65.  I'm still not selling my holdings of physical silver here, but I'm certainly not adding any SLV at this level. 

JJC - (Copper) - Yes, breakout has happened.

EEM - (Emerging Markets) - Yes, this too is clearly a breakout.  Since late July I've advocated holdings in emerging markets based on the comparison of GDP growth rates in these countries to our weak US growth and also the specter of QE2 which is targeting the devaluation of the dollar.  It appears there is significant room to run here.

TLT (20 Year Treasury Bonds) -  Risk on or risk off, the Fed's intervention in the treasury markets will in my opinion  put a floor on TLT for some time.  While interest rates SHOULD be rising here it is clear that this operation is more of a budgetary mechanism to ensure we can actually pay our bills.  The Fed and Treasury Department cannot allow rates to creep higher or else we face significant issues.

TRADING SUMMARY -
Well, that's it, I hope this summary of charts gives you a view of areas that we should be watching for the upside or a reversal. Many key areas are close to upside breakouts and we're seeing continued momentum in precious metals and emerging markets. XLF (financials) continues to look weak and this is going to be a key indicator for me to watch (it always is). It is almost as though XLF is telegraphing to us that something is going on and the story just hasn't hit the headlines yet..

IS THE BULLISHNESS WARRANTED?
The obvious answer is - perhaps! In terms of economic reasons I doubt it, but that was not the focus of this post. For me, this exercise has confirmed that we really are in a significant area here that could propel us to much higher levels. I would not be amazed to see a move through these levels, but I'm also aware that we are simply at the top of the trading range we've endured for almost one year.



The bear in me looks at these overhead resistance levels as good areas to enter shorts and allow for some room for a bust-through and reversal. The tinfoil hat wearing trader in me thinks we could see more positive action ahead.



Be Careful -
GOATMUG

DOES OBAMA REALIZE THAT AHMADINEJAD IS A NUT?

President Obama speaks out against Ahmadinejad's comments at the UN.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-24/obama-calls-ahmadinejad-s-united-nations-remarks-offensive-hateful-.html

I believe that our President is finally acting appropriately when examining issues with Iran's nut job leader.  Obama condemned the remarks made by Ahmadinejad that stated that the 9/11 attacks were planned to save Israel and boost the US economy.  President Obama said these comments were offensive......ooooooh!  Now he is talking tough.

As many of you know, I believe that Obama and his advisors have lived in a world that is naive and simply childish.  They continue to rely on hope that all the world's people want the best for everyone and while there are differences we can just all get along.  This is a real view they attempted to bring to the diplomatic table in the first year of Obama's presidency.  That we could extend a hand to "Imadinnerjacket" that he'd play nice and drop all aggression toward Israel and the US. 

What Obama never understood (and probably still doesn't) is that there are purely evil people in the world that care about nothing other than power and destroying those they hate.  Kim Jong Il of North Korea is one of these.  He lives like he is an emperor while millions of those in his country starve to death literally in the streets.  He does not care a bit about the "success" of his people, they exist to serve and provide luxury for him.  Likewise, Iran's leadership is not concerned about the welfare of the people, they do not view their job to be one of representing their citizens interests.  These men have their own interests whether they are after regional power projection, religious zealousness, or simply gratification of some other desire.

Even in his comments yesterday, Obama extended the offer to Iran to allow them to have "peaceful" nuclear energy programs!!!  What a clown!  Like this whole effort for nuclear power has anything to do with electric power!  It has everything to do with the extension of power within the region and the destruction of those that Iran's leaders hate.

Ahmadinejad is the worst kind of adversary for Obama because no matter how nice and rational we are in extending offers to have them play nice, Iran will confound a world view that suggests that each player will make a trade or deal for the best interests of all those involved.  Iran's leadership is interested in a zero sum game where they win and we lose.  This is why allowing them to have nuclear (anything) is so dangerous.  Our experience with North Korea is similar.  Once they had a nuclear weapon, you can't do anything with them.  In fact North Korea immediately attempted to sell its technology to Iran, Syria, and whoever else we don't know.

Do I suggest the only road to dealing with Iran is a military confrontation?  No.  I believe isolating them and attempting to support a insurgency from within is the only way.  A direct attack on their leadership will actually galvanize their citizens to feel attacked and might even provoke a defense of their crazy leadership.  We will not have any success though as long as China and Russia continue to aid and support Iran.  I've posted that Russia is purposefully assisting them to poke a stick at us.  Without Russian and Chinese support, I believe that Iran would have already had a revolution as their people would have no choice but to rise up and throw off their leaders that cause terrible sanctions to be place on their back.

President Obama, I'm glad you are waking up.  Unfortunately you are soft and saying things like "those comments are offensive" will not change the situation and ultimately reveal how impotent you and your strategy of hope really is.

GOATMUG

XLF UPDATE - RANGE BOUND OPPORTUNITY?

Here is a look at the XLF that I've been watching closely since I posted the Euribor numbers the other day (Sept 16th) which I thought might be a tell as to the direction of the market.  The truth is that banks have been sluggish lately as they have churned around in the upper portion of the range over the last couple of weeks.

Even after this post, we saw a breakout that started to get me excited and then it has turned out to be the ultimate head fake (what is new since all patterns have turned out to be head fakes?). 

The chart posted below is a good one in my opinion because it shows a confluence of many trend lines all centered at the $14.75 area.  As we open up this morning, it wouldn't be too much of a stretch for XLF to drop to the $13.45 lower portion of the range we've seen and then bounce. 

I don't want to overdo things here by getting too bearish and assuming that we are going into the pit.  The recent trend has been to open lower and end the day higher, so I will sell all of my short trading position (long FAZ calls) this morning at the open just to lock in some gains.  There has also been a recent trend to have weakness at the end of each month and especially at the quarter end and then rocket higher after portfolio managers complete their window dressing for regulatory disclosures. 

TRADING STRATEGY -
Overall, I'm harvesting gains (last night was the harvest moon) and not getting too bearish and greedy.  I like nailing a trade like I did yesterday where I bought those FAZ calls at the close, but I don't want to endanger those profits by getting greedy.  The recent strategy to accumulate longs on weakness has been profitable, no reason to change this now.  I will look to add to long positions as we near the bottom of the range (if we get there).

COMMODITIES -
I'm still an uber bull on commodities since Bullard's telegraph of the Fed QE2 strategy in July and August.  Commodities have been on a tear and the dollar has been just clobbered thanks to our great leadership.  We'll probably see more of the same and countries are really getting after trying to crush the values of their currencies.  Competitive devaluations are pretty nasty and it is every man for themselves right now.  Just ask the Japanese and Brazilians.  Look for active devaluations as this is really heating up.  China and Japan tensions are getting hot.  Watch this issue.

TLT -
Here is one last parting shot on TLT.  Remember when the market was rallying and everyone was saying that the long bond (treasuries) were a bubble and they were going to blow up and everyone wanted to buy TBT forever?  Pretty interesting reversal again and still over that important $100.15 level that is marked here as a breakout.  As mentioned several times, we will have 3% 30 year mortgage rates and we will only get there when TLT stays at these levels and higher.  I don't anticipate going back underneath the $100.15 level for a long while.

GOATMUG

EURIBOR RATES BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE CURVE - CAUSE FOR CONCERN?

I've been in pretty good sync with the market lately and have been trading well.  It seems that for this last cycle or two I've been able to capture rallies and short swoons at the best time.  Even now, I've ridden the last 6% move in the market here and have been quite bullish.  Just as I say those words though, I'm quite certain that we are bumping against the 1130 to 1150 range that has been difficult to exceed.  Call it pervasive bearishness or just the trader's mentality to want to exit when I have profits, but I spent last night and this morning looking for short-term signals that the wheels of the rally could be coming off.  Perhaps this is a hint that something troubling might be coming to slam this rally back down to the lower end of the range (1040).

Please click on the Euribor rates below.  I look at these figures almost every morning and have not seen a consistent move like this in quite a while where every time frame ticks higher (meaning the banks charge each other more to borrow).  Before we put too much stock in this we must marry this with the comments from  the Greeks that say they will not default (when do you trust the Greeks?).  The no-default scenario would obviously be a good thing, so I remain watchful and glad I've got some profits, I'm not selling yet, but am vigilant.

Above is a quick snapshot of the S&P500.  Is there any wonder that I'm watching that 1130 range, it has held for the last several rally attempts, why would it be different this time?

GOATMUG

JAPANESE CENTRAL BANKERS GET IN THE GAME! (CAN THEY LEAVE AT THE TOP OF THE HILL)

A super quick snapshot (who can do more than that at 12:49 AM in the morning?) on the impact that our Japanese Central Bankers are having as they intervene in the currency markets.  Essentially they are attempting to force the Yen down because the strength of their currency is hurting their companies as they try to export to world countries.  Since our (the world's) currencies are worth less it takes more of our currency to buy their products.  In the world of global competition, this is a no-no.  No one wants a strong currency, just ask the Chinese - they have artificially weakened theirs for years in an attempt to dump their junk on us and keep the prices low.

As I stated many times, ALL of the central bankers will join the race to zero interest rates and keep the "growth of the economy going".  When their policy tools have been exhausted, they sometimes rely on the mechanism to attempt to spur asset price increases by attempting to drop the value of their currency.   In stating this, I made the prediction that we'd see some (several) major currency devaluations this year.  The Japanese are doing their best to get in the game.

As of now, here are a couple of screen shots of my favorite site to check on the status of the Nikkei when I can't sleep, or am about to drift off into a pleasant dream.  If you want a real time Nikkei update this is a good site - http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/marketlive.aspx

So, what is the result of all this intervention?  Well, just as we see here in the USA when the central bank makes efforts to devalue the currency, the stock markets lift off in a celebration!  But like most parties, the happy times usually don't stay that way.  Back when I used to drink I used to have a saying that you needed to leave a party "At the top of the hill".  That usually meant that when I was having the best time it was a signal that I needed to leave.   Unfortunately we've seen that central bankers have no concept of leaving before the party is overdone.  Their history of blowing bubbles and pushing easy money and lax credit on undeserving consumers is well documented.  Why would we expect the Japanese that have tried these measures many times to be successful now?  While the party may continue for a brief time, this should set us on alert for a new rise in the yen (after it drops for a couple of weeks) and for a new fit of competitive devaluations from central bankers all around the world.  We can't let the Japanese have all the fun can we?

If you own Toyota (TM) and you get a nice pop on the move perhaps you should consider leaving while your at the top of the hill.

Who gets hurt in this?  Well, first off, any trader around the world that was long (held) yen.  The drop in value of the yen could really damage a trader's account especially since most traders use leverage (borrowed money) to create out sized gains (and losses).  Second, a Japanese citizen that is looking to purchase goods from outside the country can now buy less of that good with the same amount of yen.  Finally, if this could somehow actually create inflation in Japan (it won't) then holders of those awesome Japanese bonds that yield 1% interest each year could see the value of their bonds clobbered.  Now it is important to note this isn't an official devaluation like we've seen from some of the emerging markets countries, but the impact is clearly focused at intervening to drive down the value of the yen.

Be careful.

GOATMUG



UPDATED CHART - DATE RANGE CORRECTED

Thanks to Mark (one of our anonymous posters!) for identifying the date range error on the Coppock.  The chart in the post was great but the date range simply didn't match.  I appreciate the feedback cause the goal here is to be accurate!

Same story!  It tells us that we should be out.

GOATMUG

BOND BUBBLE DISCUSSION BREWS TWO GREAT QUOTES

Ok, I was holding on to this post till later in the week, but when I watched it today on CNBC I just couldn't believe my eyes.  If the guest goes off the reservation on CNBC he will be admonished!  This is really funny and really sad at the same time.

Great interview with Michael Pento of Euro Pacific Capital on CNBC.  You know that we are getting close to the next collapse (within a year or so) when people that suggest that "bubbles" are going to end are called rude and treated gruffly.  I love the pairing here of Michael Pento and Joe Balistrino of Federated. 

While the banter between Erin Burnett and Michael Pento is entertaining and Michael simply explains that the FED has corrupted the market and therefore has distorted pricing, our friend Joe Balistrino has the money quote of the day.

At 4:24 in the video, our man Joseph explains that the question we want to know is that are treasuries in a bubble?  "Nothing is in a bubble when people want to buy it."

And doesn't that just sum it all up for you.  We don't care about a bond bubble, housing bubble, stock market bubble, or oil bubble when it is going on because it feels so darn good.  Unfortunately the mature adults in the room (Michael) are not looking at today, they are looking forward and seeing a train wreck in the making for our debt and debt funding.  Perhaps Michael should be commended rather than told he is is rude!  Meanwhile, Joseph is happy to invest his client's money in full denial that "people may just stop buying".  I guess when the the price shock manifests itself in the bond market, Joe will declare that we were in a bond bubble!

A close second in the quote of the day category is Michael's retort at 2:29 in the video - "And house prices will go up until they don't.", obviously referring to the clowns that never saw the housing bubble coming and those that continued to plow money in hopes of getting off the train before everything else fell apart.





Enjoy!

GOATMUG

MONOPOLY LESSONS FOR A BEAR MARKET - SEPTEMBER UPDATE

SEPTEMBER UPDATE
I need to make this post really quick since I have so much going on.  I will be posting quite a few times over the next week or so because I have a lot of material (economic) that I want to share.  Overall, we are seeing divergent data coming through as usual, so we'll have to wait and see where we fall.  In general, I tend to believe the longer term theme that I've laid out that our economic situation for consumers is slowly grinding to a halt while big business is taking full advantage of the globalization of the world economy and managing to keep busy.  I think this is why some of this data remains stubbornly positive despite what Joe 6 Pack is feeling here in the US.  The fact that large multi-nationals are diverse enough to show gains abroad is great and is really beneficial to the US economy, if we didn't have that, I think we'd be in a much worse position.

TOTAL RAIL TRAFFIC - http://railfax.transmatch.com/
Rail traffic can reversed its season decline and all carriers have resumed their forward march.  They still are 10%-20% less than the 2008 period, but they continue to improve.  I need to find some truck shipping data because I have a feeling that trucking companies are opting to load their trucks on rails to save on transit costs.  This obviously makes rail shipping look better.

Total Rail Traffic

MOTOR VEHICLES (RAIL TONNAGE)
Auto shipments rebounded.  As I mentioned last month, it looked like a seasonal decline was causing a drop.  I'm interested to see what happens here in the next quarter as the green line really ramped higher last year.  Is there pent up demand or will this begin to flat line?

WASTE & SCRAP RAIL TONNAGE
Interesting, it looks as though scrap shipments are coming back in line with the 2008 and 2009 level which leaves me wonder what was happening over the last few quarters to fuel the spike.  I believe we will see the same trend happen with those auto shipments.  Despite the leveling off of scrap shipments, scrap prices do continue higher.  See the chart below for those details.

FOOD STAMPS (SNAP DATA) - http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm

Generally speaking, there is no change in the trend for government food stamp recipients.  There is an ever increasing number of families on government assistance.  I know things are rough and this is highlighting the divide between the haves and have nots.  A person in the US does not need more tax write offs or rebates or enticements to buy more "green" energy stuff or other overpriced crap, they need jobs.

41.2 million people are taking food stamps which is a total of 19.1 million households.  Benefit costs per year continue to edge up at $5.5 Billion.  The average household is receiving $287.00 a month in assistance. 

MONSTER EMPLOYMENT INDEX - http://about-monster.com/employment-index

We've commented on how the Monster Employment Index had been steadily improving as employers continued to buy advertising slots to fill their positions.  Over the last two months we've seen a decline in the listings as June was the index high at 141.  At the end of August we are at 136.  This is still high end of the range for the last year, but clearly we've seen a softening.

HOUSING
I am purposely omitting a discussion on housing.  I am attempting to obtain approval to use a few charts that I found from a great blogger on the topic.  As soon as he grants permission to copy the charts I'll make a post in the next week.  Chart or no chart, the housing market is terrible.


WLI DATA - http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/
WLI data continues to flounder in the low 120's area.  If you've followed any of the recent debate about the usefulness of their data you'd be completely confused.  The ECRI folks have submitted that their data is not an indicator of a recession, or should I say they are saying that their data does not suggest a double dip, however they have consistently advertised that their data can predict recessions.  I think we are simply seeing that all data is completely fouled up due to government influences in the market.  The Fed and Treasury have flooded the markets with excess liquidity that is doing nothing for the general economy, rather propping up asset values (and doing a poor job of it too).  These liquidity streams are really wreaking havoc with the WLI and also the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index in my opinion.  While overall data is weak, the components that deal with easy money availability are signaling that the good times are here.  The conflicting information is causing these metrics to fail.

MIT/MOODY'S COMMERCIAL PROPERTY INDEX - http://web.mit.edu/cre/research/credl/tbi.html
MIT and Moody's data shows that all is not so good on a national level for commercial real estate.  Price moves up have been met with corresponding drops.  Overall, stock market prices for commercial real estate (CRE) have been doing wonderful this year, as I'm sure that much of the improvement has been a relief that the complete meltdown that everyone expected has not come.  Yet, these are the exact times when we should be examining these investments that have had their relief rallies and now are left with a dose of reality.  Perhaps it is wise to review shorts of several real estate investments?

COSTAR - http://www.costar.com/about/article.aspx?id=7719
Costar is suggesting exactly the same.  I like this chart because it breaks down the space by type of property.  While there are regional improvements, especially in the Western US, the overall health of the CRE space is poor and declining.

SCRAP METALS COMPOSITE - http://www.scrap.net/cgi-bin/composite_prices.cgi?id=100000&num=5
As we've covered several times, Alan Greenspan used scrap metal as a way to take the economic "temperature" of the economy.  We continue to see prices rise here, but I'll be watching for a breakout above these levels to signal that some real recovery activity might be going on.  All in all this may be a reflection of international demand and dollar weakness.

BALTIC DRY GOODS SHIPPING - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Speaking of international demand, we are seeing continued improvement in the BDI.  I'm still bullish on pricing for this index to go higher.  If you are looking at this space as an investment, remember that few shippers are leveraged to this metric as they've contracted out their fleets for longer term deals.  There are a couple of shippers that are tied more to the daily rate and you should do some homework on those names.  The bottom line here is that most shippers are leveraged to an extreme and they are subject to dividend cuts (which is why many people own these types of firms).  So, faced with a cut of dividend and high leverage, I tend to shy away from these firms.  Although one can argue that with pricing as bad as it it now, there is only one way to go and it is up!

1 WEEK LIBOR - http://www.homefinance.nl/
Despite rumors of poor banking lending in Europe and around the world, we continue to see 1 week Libor and all other dates come in.  This would normally be an indicator of health in the system as bankers are "trusting" each other more and therefore demanding less of an interest rate for 1 week exposure.  As mentioned above, government interference in this space causes me to question any rate or improvement I see, especially with the concerns that European banks may need more capital.  While this is USD Libor, we are seeing the same rate reductions in all rate curves.

US FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEX - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BFCIUS:IND
The USCI has edged above 0 again which would suggest that we are now in recovery mode and in an expansion! HA!  As mentioned with WLI, I have to question it.  The big move is a result of the rebound in the stock market over the last week.  As we have covered, this is exactly the strategy of the Fed, if asset values move higher, people believe that the recovery is in.  Once they believe the recovery is in, they spend like crazy adding to their debt and spending beyond their means for instant gratification!  I'm not buying it and Mom and Pop are not buying it either.  We'll continue to watch this one.

COPPOCK TURN INDICATOR
Since I posted the Coppock turn signal in June there has been no looking back.  The signal continues to suggest that you should be out of the market rather than in.  The thing has a decent track record, but won't get you in early  on the turns because it is based on a 14 month average, however, on big swings it does give you decent signals.

S&P 500 15 DAY / 40 DAY EMA CROSSOVER
Last week's rally has put another bearish chart into question.  We'll need to watch this set up as I type this today, the signal will go back to bearish.  As many know, one of my favorite bloggers Chris Puplava suggests that a very long term signal for market declines is the 15/40 Crossover on a weekly chart confirmed with a sub-50 RSI.  As I posted several weeks ago, we did get that signal in the S&P500.  I wanted to post this here because you might get the sense that I'm bearish (and that would be correct), but I want to make sure that I'm not caught leaning one way when it really is a false signal.  Of real importance is that the DOW has NOT crossed over and therefore is not confirming the action in the S&P500.

USD -http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY:IND
The US dollar has almost lost all of its gains made in that last several months.  How easy it was for Fed President Bullard and Chairman Bernake to slash the value of the dollar!

TREASURIES (TLT)
Treasuries continue to remain above the levels that suggest stress in the financial system.  While TLT trades higher we must acknowledge that much of the gap higher is related to the Fed's QE program where they buy treasuries.  Of course this incited a stampede to get in front of the FED so we have traded down a bit once the rush abated.  I have spoken with several people that want to short treasuries or buy TBT but I would caution against this trade unless it is very short term in nature.  What we all need to understand is that this program is here for the long haul and we'll continue to see record setting low rates across the spectrum of the debt curve.  We will see 3.25% or 3.5% 30 year mortgages and to have that come to fruition, we'll need to see TLT go higher.

TRADING UPDATE
As bearish as things are beginning to look, I am very concerned when it seems like the entire universe shares my pessimistic view.  I was noting that last week and guess what, we got a big rally!  Fortunately I continued to stay long in the emerging markets strategy I've advocated since July and have rebounded nicely.  In fact, holdings in Singapore and Malaysia continue to outperform.  As we enter September I am going to scale out of positions, or if I retain them, will marry them to a short position to have downside coverage.  I still like corporate debt, but so does everyone else, so I haven't added any bonds to my portfolio in a long time and don't anticipate adding unless I see something come out that is being unloaded by a distressed seller.

For longer term trades, I still believe 100% in my anti-US strategy of going long emerging markets and gold.  The Fed has put us on notice that they will monetize debt and drive the value of the dollar down in an attempt to stimulate, stimulate, stimulate! 

I had an interesting conversation with a few professional oil and gas traders last week.  They reflected that this has been one of the toughest trading years that they can recall.  They were very concerned that top notch guys were getting blown up with the wild swings from day to day.  They commented that several big firms were really in bad shape.  It is these types of conversations that continue to keep me out of oil and gas because you can be directionally correct, but have someone blow up and move the entire market against you. 

MONOPOLY AND THE BEAR MARKET OF 2010
This is dangerous work and it pays to be cautious, patient, and above all protect your capital. I played an online version of Monopoly with my kids the other day and we had an unusual experience that is an example of what will happen in real life in the coming years.


In our online game a computer player landed on an unowned space and he decided that he did not want to buy the property. In our example, when the buyer doesn't want the property, it is sent to auction where all of the other players can bid on it. (Perhaps the real game is like this too, but I never remembered that). In our game we really wanted this Boardwalk-like property and had lots of cash to purchase it since we'd had terrible luck with our rolls. All of the other players were really strapped for cash since they had bought other properties due to their good rolls. Since I'm teaching them "economics and game theory" we entered a clever bid in hopes of stealing this prime property on the cheap. What happened next was very unusual. As the time to enter bids expired we received a notice on the screen that we were the only bidder for the property and therefore bought it for almost nothing!
The message is simple and clear. In Monopoly and in real life bear markets, there will be opportunities, you need to have cash to be able to take advantage of them. Patience is a trade so protect your capital!


Be careful!

GOATMUG

NYC MOSQUE LOCATION- IS IT REALLY ABOUT HARMONY?

I often shake my head and wonder what the nation has become.  I found this post by a British gentleman that absolutely captures my thoughts on the location of the NYC mosque near the 9/11/ attacks.  Yes, I know the site is 2 blocks away from the area.  Yes, I know there is a current mosque near there.  I personally feel that this location has been chosen to make a statement and we Americans are so cowed by political correctness and denial that we refuse to take a stand for anything worthwhile.

Perhaps I am focused on this issue because I remember 9/11/2001 so vividly.  On that day I was on a trading floor working as a fixed income analyst.  All of the sales guys I talked to each day were in New York and Chicago.  Many of our traders were speaking to other Wall Street employees right during the time the towers were hit.  I remember watching CNBC next to my desk and remarking to my co-workers on the desk that some crazy small plane had hit one of the towers.  (Remember how small the hole looked like at first).  Then we saw the second hit.  Fear and horror instantly grabbed us as as we understood that this was an intentional act.  Our Bloomberg machines kept spitting out more news that there were two more planes that were potentially hijacked and then we heard word about the attack on the Pentagon.  I remember how the markets panicked and how it seemed as though everything had changed in an instant.  I remember thinking that the sensitive infrastructure in the city I lived in might be targets on that terrible day.  I remember thinking "what kind of terrible world had I brought my daughter into?". 

This video is straight forward and is well done.  There is no doubt that European nations have been invaded from inside and are no longer the same.  There is no doubt that these countries embraced a liberal, inclusive view and it was turned against them.  You may not agree with me or this video, but you cannot deny that the choice for the location is NOT intended to bring harmony and healing to the country or New Yorkers. 




GOATMUG