THANKSGIVING TRADING OUTLOOK

MOUNTAIN TOP PERSPECTIVE
Thanksgiving! What an awesome time of the year. This is the time of the year that my family and I gear up for an aggressive 2 or 3 day whirlwind tour of our state. We jump in the car on Thursday morning, drive for hours, pile out of the car and eat. We pile in cars the next day, drive 5 more hours and share a few precious moments with another side of the family.... and then scurry out. Finally we usually make one or two more stops and enjoy another Thanksgiving meal on the weekend and draw names for an annual Christmas gift exchange we'll have when we do it all again in about a month!

Sounds great huh? Believe it or not, it is! As I've gotten older and more of my family members have passed away, I've found that I cherish these encounters with family even if they last a few hours. It took me years to get past trying to put on a good face and sharing with folks that everything with me was "perfect". I've found that as I've shared with my family and extended family challenges in my life and business, they draw closer and are more real as well. I still have a few family members that want to show off and act like they never have a set back, but those are the ones I encourage more and affirm how proud I am of them and all of their hard work. Funny, that's all they want anyway right? I actually have amazing cousins that are very successful, so it isn't hard to support them in this way.

In closing, remember, Thanksgiving really isn't about turkey, football, or a marathon road rally, it is about giving thanks to God for the blessings he has provided. All things come from Him and we should remember this daily anyway.

TRADING -
I've had several emails and calls from family over the last week asking how we should approach the holiday and year end. As usual, I set out to create my own stuff, but Guy Lerner at thetechnicaltake.com has uncovered some historical data on trading for this week and next that does a great job. As time is short, let's just look at the great work he uncovered. Thanksgiving Week Trading History - Technical Take

According to Guy's sources, this week could be pretty positive as traders and managers take the week off and the market kind of melts upward (sound familiar). Today's GDP revisions may change that a bit and that is why I've stated to friends and family that we should simply avoid this week and look to enter on more weakness next week. This data actually confirms this as well as the week following Thanksgiving is usually negative as well. It is often very negative so it may present a good opportunity to come in.

No matter what, keep both eyes on the dollar. A Fed governor came out again yesterday stating that there will be no end to the stimulus and no rate hikes on the horizon. This all means that we'll continue to play weak dollar trades and buying metals, agricultural commodities, overseas market etfs, and begin looking at energy and oil trades too. Gold and silver are on fire and while I hesitate to take off my positions there, I continue to realize that the trend is still down for the dollar and I'll continue to enjoy profits by letting these positions run.

Have a safe and blessed Thanksgiving!

Goatmug