Thursday, May 6, 2010


SPX is down again today, all on the fear that this European debt issue has real consequences for the world recovery.  European parliments are voting over the next day whether or not to extend more credit and bailout Greece.  In my opinion all of this is absolutely necessary to continue the game of pretending all of these countries and banks are solvent.  What choice to the finanical elites have but to keep it going? 

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, if a country (GERMANY) votes to reject this proposal, you can expect a total meltdown in markets worldwide.  Ultimately, if there is a rejection, the IMF, EU, and the USA will come up with something else to paper over the fact that addressing a debt problem with more debt is not a way to solve the problem.  At the end of the day reality says that someone (banks and debt holders) will need to take losses and write them down from their assets on balance sheet.  That pain is what everyone in the world is attempting to avoid and pretend that everything is just fine.

So, if Germany does not go along with the charade, expect nastiness.  If Germany does, expect a pop to the upside.

I've attached a chart of the SPX so you can see the major support lines  - this is a close up of a 700 week chart.  Below the chart I will note the support levels and upper resistance levels.

RIGHT NOW THE SPX is trading at 1159, remember this is a weekly chart so it shows a data point last week near 1200.

Lower Support Levels (lines are drawn)
Upper Resistance (if we get moving back up in celebration) -