Thursday, February 16, 2012


I can't stand it.  Like I said yesterday, with all of my favorite analysts coming to my view regarding the set up for the rest of the year, almost everything in me wants to find holes in that theory.  Sometimes it is better to be alone with a view rather than to feel like you are in a crowded trade!

Despite this new revelation that smarter guys than me have been convinced that I'm heading in the right direction, I'll still stick with my outlook, but I did take some time to look for compelling reasons why we'd have a pull back here, and I found several.  I'll share at least one with you below.  As a side note I saw a rumor that there has been a leak that the ECB has a firm date set for a Greek default and it is about one month away (around March 20th).  If I were a bankster, I'd probably need one more blow off top rally here to unload all my goodies on the masses to prepare for the rumored coming Eurozone breakup .  So, I will reiterate my sentiments from last night, if you have big profits take them, and if you are in new positions, make sure that you have stops on them.  You could potentially make a tub full of cash here in any last gasp surge, but make sure to realize profits when you end up making a bunch too quickly.

Check this out.

And this one too.

Admittedly this is a bit hard to see on the blog, but the top chart is essentially a quantification of bullishness in the market.  The second chart is the market.  What we see here is when the top chart is over or hits 85, it signals a period where investors are just too excited and everyone seems to have jumped into the boat.  The problem with these times is that no one is left to buy and propel things higher, so the rallies fall and sometimes fall quite far.  WE ARE NOT THERE YET, but a couple more days like today will seal the deal.  At the closing level of $84, the $BPSPX is near a signal, but be patient, and play this like the bankers.


Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at