Monday, April 30, 2012


As you read this post this morning I just wanted to highlight a key date that I said would mark the high point for the year.  It is sometimes easy to throw writing onto a blog post spouting guesses and hoping they come true, however this is not how I do my posts as I really try to put the most thoughtful ideas down and then stand by them.  Having said that, many of the calls I made in 13 PREDICTIONS FOR 2012 have been on the money or are trending in the right direction, others....not so much.  The biggest miss so far has been that of metals in that they simply have lagged and lagged, but perhaps a good old Euro collapse will fix that.  I am pounding on the table that you get out of gasoline related trades as for me, this is really the end of some really nice trades.

Here are the market levels for 4/30/12 as I suggested in the year-end post for 2011 that May 1 would be the time to get out.  Don't in anyway read that I am not impressed by the power of the performance of these markets, I simply think it is time to walk to the cashier and run out of the casino a winner.  Essentially, we need all the bread we can get.

DJIA - 13,213
SP500- 1,397
NASDAQ - 3,046

With these levels in mind we need to also know that the 10 Year US Treasury yield sits at 1.919% which is on trend to test all-time lows achieved in September and October of 2011.  While I'm happy I already refinanced, you might be able to do so at much lower rates very soon if any of my ideas come to fruition.  Could those 3% 30 Year mortgage rates I called for last year hit this year?  Maybe?

And finally, the cynic in me thinks that everyone thinks that our President and government will pull out all the stops to grease the economic wheels and make everything wonderful for an easy re-election bid for our incumbent president.  I on the other hand don't see things coming out so swimmingly as market manipulation and coercion is really a messy thing and timing is really hard to get right.  I do like that kind of conspiracy thinking as you know, so in fact, I can see a well timed terrorist event or foreign policy crisis that will make us all question whether we really want a rookie in the driver's seat during a scary and dangerous period.  If he can kill Osama without hesitation and use drones to kill Americans without impunity abroad, isn't he the man for the job again?  As you know I'm not thrilled with the Republican nominee, so I hold my nose and at least hope that he is a little more of a capitalist and a little less of a communist than our current version of the most powerful man in the world.


Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at