Showing posts with label government. Show all posts
Showing posts with label government. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

WHY I HATE CALIFORNIA


THE TYRANNY OF GOVERNMENT
Once again an affirmation as to why full-time politicians are a bad idea in local communities, states, and in federal government.  Full-time politicians are in the business of legislation and regulation rather than earning a real wage.

Without further comment, please spend 5 minutes watching this abomination of government and how official thugs use local ordinances to destroy a successful 30 year old business.  This is what government protection looks like.  I'm sure we'll be able to look back in one year and find that crime is actually unchanged or higher, but working people lost jobs and a business was destroyed in the name of attempting to do something.



GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments athttp://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Monday, September 24, 2012

DESTROYING BIRTHDAY DREAMS - DEREGULATION AND GOVERNMENT




Photo by Ewan

CELEBRATION
My daughter loves balloons.  I suppose most kids like them, but for some reason this twelve year-old absolutely is crazy for them.  Earlier this summer in August I found myself driving all over town in a vain attempt to find a place to purchase helium-filled balloons to ensure that her birthday celebration would be perfect.

I went to our normal place to buy cheap balloons, the Dollar store.  As a "value" kind of guy I learned quickly that it is the same helium in those balloons and it is simply a waste to pay more at a grocery store or one of those party stores.  Why pay $2 or $3 when you can pay $1?  Unfortunately, to my surprise, I was told they didn't have any helium.  I shrugged this off and went to another discount store only to find that they too didn't have helium.  In desperation, I shrugged off my frugal ways and went to the local high-end grocery and party stores knowing that they would have the gas to fill the balloons to make the birthday perfect.  Not a chance.

HELIUM SHORTAGE?
Once I got home I couldn't resist doing some research to attempt to find the cause for this apparent balloon nightmare, the issue it seems has several causes.

First, there has been some maintenance of a helium pipeline in West Texas.  This pipeline carriers 30% of the world's supply of the lighter-than-air gas.  The July pipeline update caused supplies to be rationed.

Helium production facilities in Algeria, Poland, and Australia also have production stoppages or slowdowns.

There is another  reason though that as the pipeline was shuttered we saw major supply disruptions.  It seems the world is in a transitional phase as a hand-off is happening where government is essentially going to turn over responsibilities to private industry and the transfer of responsibilities is less than perfect.





In Amarillo, Texas the US government runs the Federal Helium Reserve.  This natural cavern is the depository for most of the US supply of helium.  In the 1920's as a result of the war effort, the US government took over the responsibilities of maintaining supplies of the important gas and still does today.  In 1996 though, Congress passed legislation to terminate government control of the reserves and get out of the business handing it to private industry in 2015.

Since we are only two and a half years away, it is important to see new supplies of helium coming on line from private companies here in the US, however firms in the industry complain that the government's role in the Helium Reserve is causing problems for any new producer.  This issue is that the US government sells its current supplies at below market production costs (some say as much as 20% below) and therefore any new firm cannot compete.  While several firms might take the plunge and brave initial losses to gain a foothold in the space, there are other issues that muddy the water.  Congress is now considering extending the handoff period and therefore adds more uncertainty to the industry.  Why would any business invest and face losses when there is the threat that the US government won't exit and won't stop distorting the market?  This is just another example of how the government OR NOW THE THREAT OF THEIR ACTION simply destroys capital investment and job creation.  This is the exact issue we see now in the broader economy and why employers are refusing to hire.  They believe they will face greater taxation, greater regulation, and greater unknown burdens from the encroaching hand of government.  Why would you do more for potentially less?  Why would you take risk if you might get crushed by the government?

FUTURE HELIUM OUTLOOK?
(International Balloon Association)
 "The BLM is currently legislated to operate through 2015 with 10-15 years of reserves on hand. The crude helium suppliers that currently feed the pipeline are seeing a reduction in production and there is only one new plant scheduled to come on stream in the US in the next three years. As plants in Qatar,Algeria, and Russia become fully operational they will be expected to supply the growing demand in Asia and the Middle East allowing US exports to slow down. Depending on the pace of growth in the US helium market, the US may become an importer of helium from the new foreign sources previously mentioned.  Until that time, technological research to decrease the need for helium as an input to the production of other goods and services is underway while the science and medical industries look for ways to recapture and recycle helium." 

REALLY IMPORTANT
Helium is very critical in MRI technology as helium cools the magnets that are the key components in the imaging devices that are used in the medical fields.  If helium is not available, the MRI magnets will melt.  The industry cannot deal with shortages of the important gas.

SHORTAGE?
In reality, there really isn't a shortage, I think we are just seeing some short term disruptions that will pass.  The key will be to ensure that a good handoff exists between government and private firms and that as international supplies come on line that US suppliers make strong connections to make sure we can continue maintaining an uninterrupted supply of this important resource.

TRADING
I wanted to highlight a couple of the firms in this space.  Ultimately, I don't think helium's shortage or lack of it makes much of a difference to either of these firms, but it is a good opportunity to look at some firms I normally don't watch.  Based on the charts of Praxair and Airgas, I don't think I would touch them for a long play at all.  PX is at the lower portion of an ascending channel and is facing stiff overhead resistance.  I don't think it would take much to drop into the up 90's.  In addition, its paltry 2% yield doesn't make it an attractive yield candidate either.

PX - PRAXAIR



ARG - AIRGAS



GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments athttp://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Friday, September 14, 2012

CFOs DON'T CARE ABOUT MONETARY POLICY



CFOS ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC
We received a "gift" from the Federal Reserve yesterday that included unending monthly mortgage bond purchases.  I have another post in the works to help examine the decision by the Fed and uncover what the impact will be on the economy and the market.  Before we delve in the Fed action, I wanted to highlight a new piece of information brought to us by the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University.

As usual, I present to you the quarterly release of the CFO Sentiment Survey.  The survey is important because it provides us a global and domestic examination of what CFOs think about the economy and also their own firm's growth outlook.  I like the CFO angle because these company leaders often have a more realistic assessment of true industry and market direction and how that will impact them financially and operationally.  I often suggest that CEOs can't help but spin and sell a positive outlook because they are wired to promote and push and therefore are often glass half-full (or sometimes glass all the way full) and CFOs tend to just look at what is in the glass.

Let's examine what the most recent survey stated.


SEPTEMBER CFO SURVEY - http://www.cfosurvey.org/12q4/PressRelease.pdf
CFOs admitted in this quarter's results that they are more negative than previous reporting periods.  The financial managers suggest that they have curtailed hiring plans and have reduced their spending budgets as well.  The executives also stated that their capital spending plans would not change even if interest rates fell another percent or two, which suggests that Fed policy to lower rates would have little impact on real companies.  CFOs also stated that they would not change any of their investment plans even if interest rates ROSE 1% which further underscores that the Fed's work is not really going to have a material impact in a traditional business environment.  Clearly the Fed is targeting housing and also attempting to provide banks with more liquidity.

TOP CONCERNS
I like the CFO Survey because it also asks the finance chiefs to list their major concerns.  This survey noted that profit margins, health care cost, maintaining employee morale, and finding qualified employees were their greatest worries.  Europe's recession is also an issue on their radar and very importantly we find that companies are concerned about governmental regulations.



DETAILED RESULTS HERE
I've cut and pasted an image here to examine the survey results.  You can see that this quarter's growth estimates have been reigned in significantly.  If you'd like to examine the pdf, simply click this link - PDF OF SURVEY RESULTS



JOBS AND THE FOOLISH FED
Ultimately, companies are slowing their growth and that includes their capital spending and hiring.  While we keep hearing that the Federal Reserve is acting to support "full employment" it seems like that is a "fool's errand".  Company leaders are stating quite clearly that interest rates don't matter and lower or higher rates won't impact their decision to add more headcount!

Recessionary concerns are important as US firms look across the pond and worry about economic slowdowns visiting our shores.  While the Fed continues to try to work magic, domestic firms are trying to figure out how to balance the powerful impact of greater governmental regulations and cost requirements with the ability to actually run their businesses.  FIRMS ARE NOT HIRING BECAUSE THE REGULATORY OUTLOOK AND MANDATED COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH HIRING IS UNCERTAIN.  The Fed can buy mortgage bonds all they want, but until government gets out of the way, regulatory uncertainty will be a critical barrier to employment growth in the next year.




GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments athttp://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

MARKETING WORKS - FOODSTAMP UPDATE


SNAP IS AWESOME!  GET YA SOME!
The government's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has been a powerful success by any measure.  While hard economic times have certainly driven participation in the program in recent years due to the "Great Recession", longer term trends suggest that the foodstamp initiative is amazingly effective at adding to its roles.

The government released June data this month and highlighted that more than 46.67 million Americans are now receiving food assistance.  The new figures show that we have erased the recent drops in participation in February and April and have pushed to new record highs.  We are 3.3% higher than a year ago and 1/2% greater than last month.






DIFFERENT WORLDS?
Stock markets would have us believe that things are better and the outlook much more positive, how can we justify equity index gains and the record participation in government food programs?  We must look only to a massive effort by the last two administrations to drive up enrollment.  The USDA under the leadership of George Bush and President Obama have emphasized participation in the program and we've even had tremendous marketing efforts on television and radio to get the word out that free food is available.  The USDA is spending almost $3 million dollars to get eligible participants to apply for the service in California, Texas, Ohio, and New York.  They are specifically targeting the elderly, working poor, unemployed, and of course.....hispanics (why this group is singled out I have no idea, as if they wouldn't fit in the other highlighted groups??).

TERRIBLE STORIES
The USDA has stepped up its efforts saying that there are more than 1 in 4 eligible people in the US that still haven't applied for the benefits they are eligible to obtain!  Take a look at the video from CNN below.  As I watch this I am simply mortified for this family that they have endured 4 years of struggle.  The frustration they must feel and the shame they obviously feel is terrible as they wouldn't agree to show their faces on camera.  As much as I can empathize with them,  I am also disturbed by the lack of creative thought and noticeable lack of initiative their entire family has shown.  I can guarantee you that the father could start his own small cleaning business or janitorial supply business and earn more than the $18,000 annually the family has made as he labors as an hourly worker.  In addition, I find it hard to believe that the wife isn't working too.





After four years, I would hope that they had improved their situation and I am sure that they do too.  I just almost believe that these "safety nets" have created a group of people that are incapable of being self-reliant and creating their own success.  Clearly they didn't have significant savings as they said they were broke immediately and clearly they have some situation that prevents them from undertaking heroic measures to address their situation (possibly some health issue?).  While I am sorry that the son cannot go to college, I am left wondering why he isn't working and contributing his earnings to his family?  The family has had food assistance, free living (not paying their mortgage), and obviously other benefits too, the question is how will they get out of this mess?  Will they just continue to hope for a corporate job, or will they endeavor to try something new?  My guess is that Obama or Romney won't be able to help someone that clearly hopes to be restored to his previous position and station in life.

SAFETY NETS ARE TRAPS - GOVERNMENTS CREATING DEPENDENCY
Instead of ramping up food program expenditures, I would rather see the government get out of the business of trying to serve more folks.  If a government program must be created, make it mandatory that recipients enter a technical job training co-operative as we continually hear that America lacks skilled labor and jobs at specialized manufacturing plants are plentiful.  I am choking as I'm writing this as it sounds like I'm advocating more government, but it seems as though it is inevitable that the government is going to spend, spend, spend, perhaps it is more reasonable to demand where they are going to allocate it.

The USDA sees lots of new candidates out there and we've seen how effective they are at using marketing to reduce the stigma associated with the lack of desire or inability to provide for basic needs for a family.  I guess we can only predict that we'll see increased role size and more than $80 Billion in annual program expenditures in the near future.  One has to wonder what is wrong with the 85% of the population that isn't using foodstamps, I'm guessing it won't be long till some are enticed to join the program.


GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments athttp://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Thursday, May 17, 2012

SYSTEMOLOGY / SNAP PHDs

My friend Amy from Slope of Hope wrote the following excellent comment that I knew someone would state, and she is right on.  So instead of posting the comment in the comment section that would never be read, I wanted to respond right here and give Amy her due.  Thanks for making a great point Amy.

AMY'S COMMENT
"I think we need to be careful about blaming "those damned bums on welfare". Most of them want to work. It's not their fault that we're in this mess. We're watching the biggest rip-off in history and many of those 46 million are victims who don't have a clue what's happening."

Amy, you are so right of course.  I don't want to paint the picture that most of these folks are not needing it.  Although with 46,000,000 on the roles, I'm going to guess at least 2% to 5% just aren't deserving like the recent story where the million dollar lottery winner was a participant or the report that 20,000 Wisconsin university students had to be kicked off last year.

My post really is lamenting that we are seriously saying that 15% of our entire nation's population is receiving benefits that help to feed themselves.  15% of people aren't earning enough to buy groceries!  That is really why I track this data each month, I'm of the mindset that this is awful and I completely understand that all of them would probably trade places with Mark Zuckerberg or even Goatmug in a heartbeat.

SYSTEMOLGY PHDS
Going deeper, I'm in fact not blaming any of the people that would actually be enticed to go get some aid and benefit for free, in fact it is a natural by-product of what they been told and sold.  I actually blame our entire system as it is removing the notion that self reliance at any cost is better than taking a hand-out.  Once the stigma is removed for these things you almost create an entire class of people willing to live at that standard of living in order to not have to do anything.  Just think about New Orleans prior to Katrina where you had literally generations of families "working the system".  Was it a good living, no, not one bit.  Could they be blamed, perhaps a bit, but it is what they knew and is where they were trapped.  Could the government system be blamed?  Heck yes, as it was easier and better for the government to give them just enough to keep them in control rather than have to face them, deal with them, teach them, and actually raise them up to be people that could stand on their own.  Essentially the entire system created entire classes of PHDs in systemology or the science of working the system to maximize benefits with little or no work.

This is the vision for government in our day, get funding, provide services, advertise services, grow the budget, provide services, and grow the program.  In this set up, SNAP or CALFresh government employees have misaligned incentives as their success depends on the programs growing bigger and bigger.  What motivation does the Director of SNAP have to get people to be self sufficient and get on to real productive lives?  None!  If they do get financially healthy, the Director of SNAP has less power, reduced funding, and less prestige.

A MINDSET SHIFT
In closing, I also lament the shift in mindset this entire country has begun to undergo.  Would you ever have imagined that a large part of the population in the USA would demand forgiving their student loans and demanding this as some right like the OWS movement?  The government and socialists and Democrats and Republicans have grown government so large that we've begun to see government and regulation as the answer to every problem.  In this country we used to do things without government, now it seems no matter how ineffective government is, we need more government to fix the problems created by the government.  Just ask Congress.


GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

HOW MUCH DOES $6 BILLION BUY? - FOOD STAMPS


ONLY 46 MILLION ARE NEEDY, 270 MILLION TO GO!
The release of the SNAP data for February highlights that we are still near record usage for foodstamps here in the US.   The month of February panned out with the following details.

46,326,352 of your fellow citizens are using your tax dollars to feed themselves and their families.
The cost to feed these folks was right at $6.160 Billion.  The average family receives about $278 a month.

YTD, actual participation is down 27bps!! ALRIGHT!  Year-over-year usage is still up 4.8%.


SNAP DATA - http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm




NO REASON NOT TO, GIVE ME MORE!
The improvement in the data is slight, but I am hopeful that this trend continues.  When we examine the growth of the program it is not hard to see how it came about as the economic times have been tough.  At the same time, we have forces within the system attempting to create and increase dependency  on the government.  In 2010, California renamed their foodstamp program to CALFRESH in an attempt to remove the "stigma" of receiving foodstamps.  Is it any wonder we have citizens demanding services and saying that they deserve to be taken care of?  No, we have officials that tell users of programs that it is their right to be served and cared for, that the role of government is to make sure everyone is healthy, full of food, happy, and catered to.  The notion that government is the benefactor of course is a lie.  Government simply crowds out those people that would naturally step in and care for the needy.  Government also is only the middleman that doles out services by taking funds and spewing them out in an inefficient manner.

I don't want government programs to advertise on radio, tv, and print that they have all this "free stuff" and it is very acceptable to receive benefits.  I WANT there to be a stigma associated with living for free, for receiving free food, for having medical care that someone else provides and pays for.  When there is no stigma there is not any attribution that the services are scarce and that there is an expectation that they will only be provided for a short time.  When advertisements scream that the government wants to provide these resources it suddenly conveys that there is no limit to the amount of benefit that can be received and it costs people nothing.  By having a massive entity taking in taxes and distributing services we create an impersonal situation where recipients never see the real cost of the benefits and feel as though they need to maximize the amount they receive in any way.  (Think about having an insurance company pay your medical bills - you have no real idea about the cost, so you use the benefits as much as possible).

The promotion of dependency must stop for the good of our nation, it's poor, and for the ones that are seen as the producers in our country.  If the target continues to be placed on our most successful, we can bet that the incentive to earn and gain will be less great.


GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

WHO CAN ARGUE WITH 43 MILLION PEOPLE - MORE POPULAR EVERY DAY!

SEPTEMBER FOOD STAMP DATA - 14% OF THE US POPULATION ON FOODSTAMPS
http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm


More than 42.9 million people now are receiving assistance from the Federal Government's Foodstamp/SNAP programs. 
The September 2010 data released this week shows that 42,911,042 are accepting help from Uncle Sam.  At a cost of $5.74 Billion we are feeding many that don't have an alternative. 

This month's number is a 1.23% increase from August, a 10.1% increase year to date, and a 15.4% increase from last year at this time.  Assuming we have 307,000,000 US citizens we are nearing 14% of the population on foodstamps.  Of course all of these recipients aren't US citizens, I'm sure there are one or two illegals from England, Ireland, or Australia in there.

I guess the economic recovery didn't come in September after all?



Be careful!

GOATMUG

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

BP KILLS INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENT PIPE DREAMS IN ONE SPILL

I haven't hidden my thoughts about the oil spill and its ultimate impact on the Gulf Coast.  I believe it will be devastating and we can lay the blame right at the feet of BP.  I have heard that they did not have proper safety equipment or redundant systems in place to stop this blow out - I can't confirm or deny that, but rather than linger on who is to blame, we unfortunately have the results that continue to billow up in the form of barrels and barrels of crude. 

I feel so badly for those that are fishermen, hotel owners, and anything that has to do with the vacation industry.   I think the image below says everything.  So far, many have received a small bit of compensation, but let's face it, many will be put out of business and no amount of "compensation" can replace a person's way of life.



http://www.stevequayle.com/News.alert/10_Photo_of_Day/100609.photo.of.day.html

ORIGINAL CAPTION: River Shay, 13, stands in the front yard of his camp with his dog "Smash", while his father Patrick Shay, a seafood business owner from River Ridge, Louisiana, digs grave sites "In Memory of all that is lost courtesy of BP and our Federal Government," at their fish camp in Grand Isle, La, on Memorial Day, Monday, May 31. (Sean Gardner / Reuters)


So there you have it, the accident in the Gulf will destroy many industries and put much of the Gulf into a recession, but I've been pondering what other things the spill is going to do.  As with any big "black swan" event, many first looked for our government and President to step forward and resolve the issue (cause that is what we do when you are in a Nanny State).  I guess it is that so many people think that because the government has access to an unlimited checkbook (not unlimited really - we'll soon find out), that it can swoop in and save us from anything.  Perhaps it is because our politicians and the government tell us that it can do anything and has the answer to all the things in life that are wrong or unfair.  Perhaps it is because we are looking for a savior, or we as a nation are just soft and think that someone should bail us out when ever we get in a mess.  Heck, if you remember back to the election with the woman that flat out stated that Barrack Obama would pay for her gas and her mortgage when he became President (wonder how she's doing now?).  Since I'm writing this, I'm guessing that you might know that I have a different opinion.  I believe that government's actions are often the very cause of many of our problems.

In fact, I think recent history shows us that actually government is not able to perform well as a savior in any respect and in fact is just a huge consumer of time and energy.  Let's think for a moment when we've drawn on the resources of the US government to save us.

2007-2008 (Financial Crisis) - Despite the fact that the Fed helped cause it  / NOPE - Current cost is greater than $2 Trillion and we are still discussing how we may be in a double dip recession and how the world's credit markets are worse than they have ever been.

2005 - Hurricane Katrina - This for me is the big one.  This event was George Bush's Waterloo.  The entire country looked at the government to save New Orleans from the hurricane only to find that the government could not manage anything.  The scope of the problem was so large and the complete collapse of local government destroyed the ability of the federal government to manage this situation.  Clearly lack of planning and total corruption of local Louisiana government complicated matters.  No matter the reasons, the federal government received an F for its handling of the crisis.

Finally, we have this terrible environmental destruction.  Obviously the government doesn't have the equipment or the expertise to take over and plug the leak, I don't expect them to.  The point of my discussion here is to highlight that what we are hearing is the government should "DO SOMETHING" and our President tells us he needs to know "who's ass to kick".  No amount of regulators or moratoriums will help "fix" this situation in the gulf.  The reality is that I'm shocked that big leaks like this haven't happened before.  I am not looking for the administration to do anything, but ensure that the Coast Guard has the ability to coordinate the cleanup.  Seeing the President in Florida and Alabama for the third, fourth, or fifth time does nothing to impress me.  Cries for him to show his outrage are a waste as well.

Ultimately, when we do not have expectations, we are not disappointed.  I think this is the issue that we are seeing come to a head....again.  The BP catastrophe is destroying the Gulf and the false idea that government is the answer to anything. 

GOATMUG

Monday, March 22, 2010

THE FALL

I am collecting my thoughts on what occurred last evening. I can only simply state that things are not what they seem and we have forcibly had our liberty taken from us. Once again I fear Americans have allowed freedom to be exchanged with "good feelings" and catchy slogans. Health care is not about health care, it is about taxation, revenue building, and growing government power. The size of our government is reaching the point where it will collapse on itself. It is not as though we don't have examples in our midst. Look no further than Europe to Greece, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The government cannot be the answer to all of your needs and desires without the cost of your freedom.

Large organizations only know that they need to be bigger. As a budget analyst for a large firm many years ago, I never heard a manager suggest cut backs and ways to efficiently use their resources. Managers always want more headcount. Is it odd to see that government acts the same way? Unfortunately we have leadership in this country that believes it can know what is best for all people despite years of data and outcomes that show they don't and cannot deliver on their promises.

Please read the following excerpt;

The story of the republic's fall (ROME) is one of the great lessons of history. It is one that Americans should pay special attention to; for the same permissive spirit, sensuality, and apathy have appeared in our midst today. Americans should consider the extent to which we have been unthinkingly cultivating our own destruction. "Surely, then," wrote Cicero after Caesar's assassination in the Roman Senate, "our present sufferings are all too well deserved. For had we not allowed outrages to go unpunished on all sides, it would never have been possible for a single individual to seize tyrannical power." At the end of this passage, Cicero concludes: "Here in the city nothing is left -- only the lifeless walls of houses. And even they look afraid that some further terrifying attack may be imminent. The real Rome has gone forever." [Michael Grant translation, On Duties]

This post taken from a great article by Jeffrey R. Nyquist - http://www.strategiccrisis.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=197:the-fall-of-the-roman-republic&catid=36:social-issues&Itemid=67

Goatmug

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Misdirection and Slight of Hand - Health Care Reform

Just a quick post to provide you information on the health care reform trends.Click below to read what United Health Care has summarized as what they believe will be the final version of the coming changes to health care over the next few years.

http://www.ezrespond.com/Healthflash.pdf

Specifically, in the next 6 months, insurers will need to adjust their treatment of the following;

1) Get rid of any waiting periods of greater than 90 days to begin insurance that is approved.
2) Stop rejecting children under 19 for pre-existing conditions.
3) Stop canceling insurance policies except in the case of fraud (this is overdone - in 7 years I have never seen a policy dropped for someone making valid claims.)
4) Provide preventative care (wellness visits) without cost sharing. - Many insurers only pay $300 or $400 a year, but require a client to pay 25% of the cost. For example they pay 75% of wellness visits up to $300 out of the insurance company's pocket.

All of these changes are good and right, however they will raise rates, so hold on to your hat!

UHC also highlights other changes they expect in 2011 and 2014 so read away.Here is my take on the entire deal.

STRUCTURE
You must know how the structure is set up to understand the fraud that is being put in place.
A) Taxes begin immediately.
B) Cuts in Medicare coverage begin (After mid-term elections)
C) In six months, the changes above are effective
D) 2014 - The big reform is schedule to hit - Individuals are required to have coverage or pay a penalty of the greater of $750 or .5% of their income if they don't purchase insurance.

IMPACT

HIGHER RATES
As I mentioned, the impact of these changes will be immediate. Insurers now are required to take children that have pre-existing conditions in the near term and these "sick" kids will be an immediate drain on profitability and an increase in cost. Is there any doubt that kids that are very sick will hurry to buy insurance? Is there any doubt that insurers will adjust rates on all new policies sold and also on all existing policies when they have a chance?

TIME LINE
Ok, so here is the real deal. The administration's efforts here are to begin paying for this plan with increased taxes today. In addition they begin cutting Medicare benefits, require insurance companies to make changes immediately add sick folks to the insured roles (read as decrease profits and increase costs - or simply put hurt their businesses significantly). Finally in 2014 we have everyone come on the plan. Kind of strange timing isn't it?

WHAT WILL REALLY HAPPEN
A) Oh yes, please look at the 2014 stipulations as well. Employers will ultimately drop their coverage and stop offering it if they employ more than 50 employees. Think about it, they will cut costs significantly in the form of premiums (they will have to pay a $750 fee per employee fee when not offering a plan) and will be able to tell their employees that they have health care available through the government exchange plan. -- You don't think they'll do it? Right now, most employers pay 1/2 of the health plan costs per employee, just assume that that is $200 a month of a total of $400 a month. The break-even is just at 4 months. Cash strapped employers will absolutely push their employees off into the new plan.

B) Over the course of the next 3 years, people will sue the federal government and it WILL be declared unconstitutional to require a person to enter into a contract with a third party to obtain insurance.B) In that 3 year period, private insurers will have had their business margins slashed and profitability will have been destroyed. With the high court ruling that the health reform act is unconstitutional, we will see a final destruction of these firms as the trend to buy insurance will be broken and good healthy clients will drop policies, while sick folks will retain them.

C) As a result of the court action, the federal government will step in with the only solution - a national health plan that is a one payer system (GOVERNMENT HEALTH PLAN). This will be the only fix as the collapse of private insurance plans will be complete.

It sounds ominous and sounds like a conspiracy doesn't it? The answer is clearly "YES" it does and guess what, it is all planned. Remember, the administration says they don't care what gets passed, just as long as it is passed. This is the gateway for the end goal of national health care. The first step is only a first step.

Do I think the system needs an overhaul? Yes, of course. I speak with people every single day that are declined by insurers.

Do I think this is the answer? No way.

Long term, you as a patient and consumer will pay more, have less choice, and ultimately wait much longer for medical services. Government is inefficient and is never the answer. In addition, all of the assumptions by the CBO and the administration don't account for the massive exodus from employer plans to the new government plan. This will be the major reason for massive cost overruns.

We have been told that the model for these plans are the VA system and Medicare.Remember two or three years ago when President Bush was blasted for the conditions and treatment of soldiers in the VA system during the Iraq conflict? Remember how the Democrats told us how terrible things were and how bad the hospitals were maintained? Ask a veteran that goes to the VA how quickly treatment is provided? This is the model?

Finally, if you think that government can run things well why is Medicare absolutely broke? Why would we model anything after this plan. The system is filled with fraud and costs are out of control. The government almost creates an environment where over billing is the norm because they reimburse providers at less than 50%. If you owned a practice wouldn't you do an extra procedure, lab, or other test simply to cover the cost of the haircut you'd receive?

Bookmark this post, I'm certain of only a few things in life, but I am sure this is a disaster waiting to happen. In the meantime, I'll rejoice as I'll sell a lot more policies and insure many of the kids that I've had declined previously. I better save my money though because the future is certainly dim over the long term unless the government allows for the sale of supplemental coverage to sit on top of the government run plan we are sure to have.

Goatmug