Saturday, July 16, 2011

BROKE EMPIRE RESORTS TO MASSIVE STORMTROOPER LAYOFFS


Stormtroopers can be found wandering the streets with all of their belongings in their Troopercarts.

 
CREDIT ATTACKS LEAD TO DOWNSIZING
Stormtroopers throughout the Empire received their pink slips this weekend and were summarily kicked to the curb with all of their belongings and a small severance stipend.  As credit problems resurfaced in Europe over the last month, the USA felt like it had dodged a "rebel assault" only to find that all of the radical rating agencies were gearing up for war.

Last week Planet Moody's launched a preliminary onslaught against the Empire's credit domination as a AAA credit by putting the country on credit watch for a downgrade.  Moody's cited the lack of fiscal cohesion on the part of the Senate and Congress and their inability to raise the debt ceiling.

Standard and Poors joined forces with Moody's in an unlikely rebel alliance by also placing the USA on credit watch, but stated that it would drop the credit rating of the Empire if significant budget and deficit cuts weren't approved.  They stated the rating will be cut within 90 days if these changes were not made.

GEONOSIANS (CHINESE) LAUGH AT THE EMPIRE'S LIES
At a high level economic summit on planet Geonosis, General Grevious (aka Tim Geithner) responded when asked how the USA could simply terminate so many of their Stormtroopers with little notice by saying, "It's expensive to run an Empire and we've got to prove that we believe in a strong dollar)."  When concluding his statement, young Geonosian students laughed at the outlandish lie.

While the spending issues in the Empire are the headline stories we are reading, the real drama is playing out in real life as Stormtroopers and Tie Fighter pilots are being furloughed without warning in an attempt to resolve the huge spending deficit.


Many wayward Stormtroopers have been attacked and killed by kangaroos on the dark side of planet Earth.  Stormtroopers without jobs are more susceptible to depression and illness and are often unable to defend themselves from vicious predators. 

DEBT CEILING AGREEMENT?
So how will this play out?  Clearly the CONgress will come to an agreement with the Administration and there will be a debt ceiling agreement.  The rating agencies are simply playing catch up here and should have don't this years ago.  They are a complete joke.

Interestingly, the only credit agency that I actually trust, Weiss, downgraded the USA to debt to C- which equates to a BBB- with Standard and Poors.  It is almost a junk rating!  http://www.thestreet.com/story/11186657/1/us-downgraded-to-near-junk-by-weiss.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

Who do you think is really telling the truth?  I tend to side with Weiss since they are the only independent credit rating firm that earns their money from investors that pay them to look at companies and countries.  Standard and Poors and Moody's take their compensation from the companies that issue the debt, which is an obvious conflict of interest.  If one of the current rating agencies other than Weiss gives you a rating you don't like, you just stop paying them to rate it!  Don't you think they are incented to play nice and give you every chance in the world to have the best rating?  This is why the ECB and IMF's interactions with the ratings agencies are a total sham, and why now we are seeing these central banking institutions simply state that they will ignore ratings when purchasing and backing the sovereign debt of Greece and Italy. 

(Yes, I'm having fun, please read the story about Jacob French who is an Australian nut job that clearly doesn't have a job who is now walking across Australia to raise money for charity.  When I saw the pictures I simply couldn't resist; who can resist a story about a guy in a Stormtrooper costume?). 

GOATMUG




Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Friday, July 15, 2011

HOUSEKEEPING ITEMS

Just an update on some things to keep you in the loop and some reminders.

I've made quite an effort to post everyday to try to keep readers coming back.  Thank you so much for coming, we are now seeing more than 100 visitors to the site daily (yes, I come here 50 times as I've confessed), but you other 50 keep it up.  I really enjoy writing when I know someone will read it!

GOOGLE +
If you like an article, please don't be shy, click that +1 at the bottom.  I've read lots of stories on web indexing and this I guess should be quite helpful to continue to get the Goatmug Blog more exposure.  I'd do it, but for some reason they don't let me!  You'll see the +1 icon right after the post, just click it if you like it!

ADS -
If you find an interesting ad to the right, please click on it.  I'm interested to see how that works out.  I am trying to change the subject matter of the ads as usually there are a bunch of foreign exchange trading ads.  I'm not sure how many forex traders are reading this, but heck, click those ads anyway.  I think I'm up to $40 in lifetime revenue!

AMAZON.COM SEARCH BOX
Last shameless plug.  If you know you are going to buy something from Amazon, please use our search box on the top right of the blog to do it.  Someone last month downloaded a bunch of songs by searching for them through the search box, and I appreciate that.  If you own a Kindle or want to buy a computer, or anything, please start at the Goatmug Blog and then enter in a key word in the search box.  I've seen some cool and weird stuff bought through the site (and no, I can't tell who did it) so it is at least amusing to see what kind of consumers you guys are when I see the report!

Thanks again for supporting me by stopping by the blog.

GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

MCP CHARTS - LONG OR SHORT?

Dr. Strangeglove asked for a perspective on MCP so here it is;

1 Yr Daily on MCP


Also here is a view of the 1 Year Weekly on MCP



GOATMUG

THE NOOSE IS TIGHTENING....


Moody's made the first assault on the beachhead just yesterday.  Shockingly, Standard and Poors reinforced the rear guard today reporting they put the USA sovereign debt on credit watch negative.

Now here is the real kick in the pants;
"The long-term rating may be lowered by one or more notches into the AA category in the next three months if SandP concludes Congress and President Barack Obama’s administration haven’t achieved a credible solution to the rising U.S. government debt burden and aren’t likely to achieve one in the foreseeable future, according to the statement. "
Note that it isn't like the Moody's warning that the debt ceiling negotiations were a reason for the potential downgrade, this explicitly states that the USA is on credit watch for its out of control spending.  In other words, EVEN Standard & Poors cannot be bought off anymore and just like several weeks ago with the Italian bonds, the rating agencies finally are stating the obvious.

Congress and the administration were just given a warning here and they better pay attention.  There are significant ramifications for downgrades and the biggest one of course is that we'll be required to by higher interest on borrowing.  We already know that the Fed (we) lose billions each time bonds trade 1 bps (basis point) higher.  We simply cannot afford an increase in borrowing costs now and rising interest expense simply adds to the problem of meeting our future obligations.

I'm increasingly repulsed by both political parties and  I only champion candidates that actually propose and support fiscal restraint and cutting EVERYTHING!  Note how I phrased that, I only care if they actually do what they say, not just say and not do.  Yes, that would include Rand Paul and Ron Paul who talk a good game and then suddenly can't get anything done.  I don't care if the program helps little old ladies, dogs, police, traders, bankers, beggars, or murderers, I want the programs and employment serving that program cut 10% tomorrow as an opening gesture.  I want Congress closed for half a year.  Finally, the department of Energy, Education, and Homeland Security need to be shuttered and all Federal Union contracts destroyed.  These should be a fine starting place to warm us up for discussions to move the retirement age for 40 year-olds and younger to 72 for Social Security.  Social Security tax caps need to disappear and benefits need to be means tested while Medicare and Medicaid outlays need to be reduced.  Finally, to cap off the blitzkrieg attack on government nanny-ness, waste, and fraud, the Patient Protection Act (Obama Care) should be thrown in the trash.

I haven't forgotten about defense spending either and that should receive a flat 15% cut and all foreign aid to all countries should cease immediately.  It is a travesty to think that Americans pay foreign aid to China so they can steal from us and rip us off and then lend to us.  It is wrong that Pakistan takes billions from us and then supports the Taliban that are killing our troops.  Once the money flows to other nations are halted we'll quickly find out if they were really our friends or not.

The rating agency actions are serious and our "representatives" in Congress and the guys in the administration better wake up.

It won't be long before the bond vigilantes come around and we'll see just how much fire power and creativity Bernanke has left.  The bond market is way bigger than the Fed balance sheet.  The Fed may be able to manipulate equity prices but he can't handle drinking from the bond market's hydrant if everyone starts selling treasuries.  He won't be able to keep rates at zero forever in the face of that kind of onslaught.  You can hear them saying, "Get a rope".

GOATMUG




Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Thursday, July 14, 2011

TIME TO SHORT SILVER? HOPE NOT.....

We are ramming up to significant resistance, could this be the time to bail and reload at a lower level?  Bulls simply need Ben Bernanke to say that the Fed is here to save us all and with whatever fire power he has and it will bust through.  On the other hand, if Benny seems dovish and acts like they have limited options, SLV is going to retest the $32.50 level again.

Be nimble!


GOATMUG


Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/