Wednesday, May 2, 2012

300 POSTS - MILESTONE

HOPE IT WAS ENTERTAINING
I was about to pen a post and prepare for the monthly update that will be completed in a couple of days and I noticed that the post titled Dropping Bread Crumbs was the blog's 300th post.  As I am getting back to my "normal" life since a recent family emergency it has been obvious that I have had trouble posting at all, much less every day as I have been doing for a couple of years.

The break in posting has made me aware how much a miss the opportunity to organize my thoughts and also how quickly the habit of good writing goes (I found about 4 typos in the last post that I corrected after previously proof-reading and posting!).  It is also pretty apparent how much of "me" comes out in this writing as I recently had one reader leave a comment that he enjoyed reading my rant on COLLEGE MADNESS, but he felt my thoughts were "too much Texas conservatism".  Ok, if that is criticism I guess I'll take it and not deny it.  I also find that I probably try to censor my thoughts and tailor them toward economic issues more than I should.  I guess I do this to focus the blog, but frankly all things ultimately come back to power and money, or has an impact on how we steward our money.

I am grateful that people continue to visit the site and read my thoughts, I hope that it is helpful to you in some aspect of your life.  I noticed that I am now seeing about 30 visits a day, way down from the highs of 115 visits a day, but what could I expect since I've hardly posted in two months?  With that, I'll wrap up and get back to the writing the Monthly Review as we are really in a critical spot and a Spanish implosion or a Chinese failure to invoke the spirit of inflation might just be the keys for another global economic swoon.  May is important this year and don't you forget it!

Other key stats from the blog -

Total Visits - 80,400
Most Read Story - 679 views - 12/15/2011 - Kyle Bass Newsletter
2nd Most Read - 652 views - 12/8/2010 - Who Can Argue With 43 Million?




GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/


 

Monday, April 30, 2012

DROPPING BREAD CRUMBS SO WE CAN GET BACK

A LOOK BACK
As you read this post this morning I just wanted to highlight a key date that I said would mark the high point for the year.  It is sometimes easy to throw writing onto a blog post spouting guesses and hoping they come true, however this is not how I do my posts as I really try to put the most thoughtful ideas down and then stand by them.  Having said that, many of the calls I made in 13 PREDICTIONS FOR 2012 have been on the money or are trending in the right direction, others....not so much.  The biggest miss so far has been that of metals in that they simply have lagged and lagged, but perhaps a good old Euro collapse will fix that.  I am pounding on the table that you get out of gasoline related trades as for me, this is really the end of some really nice trades.

STUFF A LOAF IN YOUR SACK FOR THE TRIP
Here are the market levels for 4/30/12 as I suggested in the year-end post for 2011 that May 1 would be the time to get out.  Don't in anyway read that I am not impressed by the power of the performance of these markets, I simply think it is time to walk to the cashier and run out of the casino a winner.  Essentially, we need all the bread we can get.

DJIA - 13,213
SP500- 1,397
NASDAQ - 3,046

With these levels in mind we need to also know that the 10 Year US Treasury yield sits at 1.919% which is on trend to test all-time lows achieved in September and October of 2011.  While I'm happy I already refinanced, you might be able to do so at much lower rates very soon if any of my ideas come to fruition.  Could those 3% 30 Year mortgage rates I called for last year hit this year?  Maybe?


TAKE ADVANTAGE OF EVERY "EVENT"
And finally, the cynic in me thinks that everyone thinks that our President and government will pull out all the stops to grease the economic wheels and make everything wonderful for an easy re-election bid for our incumbent president.  I on the other hand don't see things coming out so swimmingly as market manipulation and coercion is really a messy thing and timing is really hard to get right.  I do like that kind of conspiracy thinking as you know, so in fact, I can see a well timed terrorist event or foreign policy crisis that will make us all question whether we really want a rookie in the driver's seat during a scary and dangerous period.  If he can kill Osama without hesitation and use drones to kill Americans without impunity abroad, isn't he the man for the job again?  As you know I'm not thrilled with the Republican nominee, so I hold my nose and at least hope that he is a little more of a capitalist and a little less of a communist than our current version of the most powerful man in the world.


GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Friday, April 20, 2012

COLLEGE TUITION MADNESS


INSANITY 
I've often written on the blog over the last couple of years about how college costs are out of control.  You can say that costs are driven higher by excess demand as "everyone" needs to go to college now and others point their finger at the massive college loan and federal aid subsidies that put gobs of money into the hands of immature and financially illiterate youths that have never thought to examine the return on investment for $100,000 of borrowed money.  (See past writings on this subject - "SLAVERY THROUGH STUPIDITY, ENTITLEMENT, AND LIBERAL ARTS")

Clearly, college tuition costs have raced higher over the last 10 years and it is probably attributable to these ideas and even others like the expansion of stupid programs and hiring of professors and Deans to promote "Diversity" on campus.  I've howled about how colleges now emphasize more liberal arts and less hard science and math and how the "system" is not focused on teaching but providing "the college experience".

CHANGE THE FREAKIN SYSTEM!!!
I even wrote about how the Alumni Association of the University of Texas rallied against Texas Governor Rick Perry's challenge to create a 4 year degree program for students that could be completed online at a cost of no more than $10,000.  They complained that the degree conferred would rob students of the maturing they receive and the college experience.  Let me tell you, that "college experience" robbed me of 2 extra years in school and it would have been longer had I not discovered that the purpose of college is to be equipped in the skills of critical thinking and teaching valuable real world information to prepare kids for a real job.  Nothing else!

Here is a snapshot of what has happened to costs in the last 10 years courtesy of Bloomberg.



Bloomberg is trying to make the point here that out of control college costs are crowding out a person's ability to purchase a home because student loan debt makes them hesitant to buy.

Finally, I'll end with a nice chart from the WSJ - This chart highlights the highest paying college majors and also some of the lowest.



Personally, I feel pretty strongly that anyone that wants to go into Social Work should only do so by obtaining an education at a public higher education institution (not private) and only based on receiving grants and other scholarships.  This is a fine helping career, but it isn't one that cannot support a living, especially if that student takes on $125,000 in debt to finance it from a private school.  Remember these two clowns?.... -Social Workers with $240,000 in loans-.




GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/





Wednesday, March 21, 2012

DID YOU CATCH THAT MOVE IN RATES?


I must begin this post with an apology and an explanation.  Unfortunately I have not posted in almost exactly one month.  I have had a family emergency that has required almost all of our attention.  Events like these make me realize how important family is and at the same time how much the blog has connected me to so many great people that I've never met in person through this thing called the web.  Another great aspect of writing the blog is that it does connect me with the rhythm of the market.  When I am not writing, I feel like I am not in sync with what is going on.  Things seem to be calming down with the family situation, so thanks for coming back to read posts.

BIG MOVES
Did you see that huge move in 10 year treasury rates?  All I can say is, "Wow!"  Does a move like this suggest that the treasury is done and is going to be trashed as an asset forever?  No, in fact, if we stick to the plan that I laid out in Confidence Lost - 13 for 2012 this move in treasuries is simply a warning to us that we are getting close to the next major move in markets that I suggest will  happen in May of 2012.



This move in treasuries is simply a wake up call that there is a market force out there that could shatter all the serenity and peace of an equity market that goes up every day.  A 30 or 40 bps move in treasuries is a massive move and I can only imagine the damage it did to currency traders.  Remember back about a year or two ago when we discussed the Fed's balance sheet DV01 or their risk to a 1 bps move?  I believe the DV01 at that time was close to $1.5 Billion.  So last week's move could have cost the Fed around $45 Billion in losses or more based on those old estimates.  That has to leave a mark.

TREMORS
Just like the small tremors that for months have preceded the big 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Mexico yesterday, moves like these in the treasury world are indications that some stuff is brewing.  I anticipate that the equity markets will shrug off this move in yields and push higher for another month, but this should shake us and cause all of us to begin examining positions that have made great gains in the last 6 months.

SYRIA, IRAN, ETC....
Oh yes, what a mess.  This isn't going to get better anytime soon.  Where is our political leadership?  Where is the outrage for Syrian atrocities against its people?  Syria is even more critical as a removal of that regime further isolates Iran which is clearly in the world's interest.  My guess is that our administration will not move to take a stand on Syria since it just makes too much sense.


GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/





Monday, February 20, 2012

WHAT IS AUSTERITY LIKE? THE GREEK PERSPECTIVE

If you haven't watched the previous embedded video called "Century of Self" you are missing out! On this non-trading President's Day I suggest that you take an hour or two or four and watch the four part series I've put into one video.  It is really good and really scary.  I have taken a ton of handwritten notes over the course of watching the first 3 hours and I will summarize them soon.

I keep speaking to people that have no sense of what is going on in the world.  I had a conversation the other day with a health insurance client that was talking about buying a $85,000 sports car.  Yes, he is wealthy, but not THAT wealthy.  I finished the conversation with the notion that this gentleman has learned nothing from the financial crisis and he'll be the first one to cry about any catastrophic event that happens in his life.  He is clearly enamored with his wants more than his needs.  In fact, he is the perfect living example of what the Bernays wanted to create in America as highlighted in the video.

What is life like in Greece?  We hear words like austerity and see the riots, but what is the business of daily life like?  I've presented 3 stories below.  The NY Times piece is pretty good and optimistic while the other pieces....not so much.  Enjoy

THE HUMAN TOLL

The Way Greeks Live Now
I found an interesting article in the NY Times the other day about life in Greece and how the financial crisis has changed people's lives.  Some of the information presented in the story seemed to conform to my understanding of Greek life in that there were several brief interviews with families that had lost jobs and were changing their life-styles to cope.  While this information was in line with my way of thinking, the author, Russell Shorto, seems to spend most of his time highlighting successes in the midst of the Greek tragedy.  Several of the article's subjects are doing extremely well and actually increasing business.  Even as he covers the sad stories of families he suggests that since most have family homes in the country, there is still a way out for many that face hard times.

AUSTERITY AIN'T SO BAD?
While I am an optimist, I don't buy all of the good feelings that Mr. Shorto describes as being the normal outcome in what I would describe as a worsening environment.  Since this was one perspective, I wanted to present some other ideas.





The 3 minute piece from RT.com gives us more details about the austerity measures and how they are changing daily life.  Medical services are becoming more limited and citizens are turning to help organizations to meet their needs.  RT clearly has an agenda and a bias, and so it is important to highlight that as well.  They are trying to show that the military has not endured many consequences resulting from economic cuts and the people have endured full force of the results.  There are political realities and deals being made in the process and it isn't surprising to note that Germany and France are tying aid to Greece with back room deals that demand that military purchases be made with proceeds of each life saving infusion of funding.

The New Poor
Unlike the first written piece from the NY Times, this article from Der Spiegel gives us insight into the trends Greeks are seeing that are not improving.  The article highlights how many singles have lost their jobs and then quickly lost everything else.  The homeless shelters and soup lines are seeing waves of "new" seekers looking for their services.

PULL THE BAND-AID OFF ALREADY!
As we begin to hear more and more about a coming Greek default, these stories will get worse.  Upon default the human toll will be more worse as the cost of everything imported will become amazingly expensive.  Imported fuel, food, and everything else will be too costly to many.  Greece will become in time a very affordable vacation destination for richer Northern European countries as Mexico had been cheap for Americans for years.  While this will be painful, it is better to do this now and retain some national assets before selling them off and then defaulting after all the assets have been striped away and lost to global creditors.  Like everything in life, it is better to own up to responsibility and face consequences for actions early as a delay magnifies the damage and only serves to make the outcome more painful.


GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/