Showing posts with label foodstamps. Show all posts
Showing posts with label foodstamps. Show all posts

Monday, December 10, 2012

BRINGING HOME THE BACON - FOODSTAMP REPORT

GOVERNMENT SUCCESS!
The SNAP program (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) is enjoying a record amount of success as it recorded a huge  monthly increase.  The Federal Government released September data showing that the foodstamp roles added more than 600,000 participants, the largest monthly gain since December of 2009.

The current count shows that we have more than 47.7 million Americans obtaining food through the program, this is about 15.5% of the US population.  The projected MONTHLY cost of this support is $6.4 Billion.




THE FOODSTAMP CHALLENGE!
As the number of citizens and non-citizens on foodstamps increase the politicians cannot help themselves but wade into the mess and attempt to make the folks on SNAP feel good about themselves.  In fact, politicians like Corey Booker, mayor of Newark, NJ go further and attempt to make the point that the nation should INCREASE foodstamp benefits for recipients.

NEWARK MAYOR SHARES FOODSTAMP CHALLENGE
Corey Booker tweeted his experiences and shared the misery of living on $4 a day which is about the amount that he would receive as a single person that qualifies for benefits in the program.  Unfortunately, Mr. Booker hasn't keyed in on a significant part of the program that is revealed in the name, which is SUPPLEMENTAL ASSISTANCE.  The foodstamp program is not intended to be the food source for 100% of a participant's food and is not envisioned to be a long term provider for a single person or family.

In my opinion, the real reason Mr. Booker took the challenge and has made this a big issue is that he has grand aspiration of higher office like governor or senator.  

BRINGING HOME THE BACON
Politicians understand how this works better than most of us.  See, Mr. Booker sheds light on just how hard it is for his constituents to live on foodstamps, and he is perceived as a guy who fights for the poor.  The federal government increases their monthly allotment and then they vote for him.  Or, sometimes it is the other way around.  They vote for him and then they expect him to "BRING HOME THE BACON".  At least that is how Joann Watson of Detroit believes it should be done.


Fox 2 News Headlines

My guess is that Mr. Booker will get elected to some office and he'll deliver more taxpayer money to more foodstamp participants ensuring that they get something extra.  I personally wish that we'd work to add jobs not an extra portion of hog.

WASTE AND FRAUD
The federal government has a target of 3.8% error or fraud rate for the SNAP program, that means they are hoping to only waste or have stolen $2.5Billion this year!

ATTITUDE
I think one of the largest issues I have with the SNAP program is that our federal government attempts to "sell" this program as if it is good to everyone.  Here are a couple of examples;

  • Advertising to add more recipients - The SNAP program spent millions earlier this year in LA and Texas attempting to add more people to the foodstamp roles.  They purposefully try to reduce the stigma associated with "getting some bacon".

  • Politicians tell us it just isn't enough.  Mr. Booker is a perfect example of this problem.  There would never be enough to satisfy people.  Even if we raised the benefit by 50% we'd be told that the amount isn't enough to buy organic fresh veggies or meat.  

  • Sales -  For some reason the USDA believes that it needs to sell taxpayers on the merits of the program.  Their website tells us that for every $5 dollars spent on the program it generates $9.2 in economic activity!  Yeah!  Frankly, I don't need to be sold on the need to help someone out and get them back to work.  I actually support the idea of the SNAP program and don't need to be sold on the idea that the program is good for the economy.

WE NEED SNAP
Don't get me wrong.  There are people that are in poverty that need "temporary assistance" to get to a self sustaining level.  I feel strongly that programs like SNAP, housing assistance, free Obama phones, and more make life more comfortable than it should be FOR MANY able bodied men and women.  I think the fact that SNAP continues to increase despite all of our government's reports that show how the economic situation is improving.  If our economy is better and the employment rate is lower, how is it possible that the SNAP program continues to expand at an even greater rate? 

GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments athttp://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Friday, September 21, 2012

11 THINGS THAT BLOW MY MIND.....

CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS IS TRUE?
I'm up at midnight on a Friday night and just am confounded with random thoughts about how crazy life is and what a screwed up world we live in.  We live in the most awesome country in the world where each and every day people work to try to make it unawesome or convince us that it isn't awesome.  We are blessed beyond the wildest imagination of any human civilization that has lived (even the entire world is healthier and wealthier than ever), yet the benefits of this blessing has made us desensitized, dependent, and frankly ignorant.

Here is simply a quick list of things I'm pondering that are just awe-inspiring in a very negative way.  Many are political, and perhaps that is because so many of these thoughts are just pent up frustrations.

1)  IS THIS OUR BEST?  We have two candidates that are battling for the position as President that are complete goofs.  Can't we do better?

Obama is an inexperienced dreamer who bases the implementation of policies on nothing more than utopian best-case hopes without real practical substance.  Without Hitler-like oratory skills and amazing superficial charm, he wouldn't have gotten elected to city council in an Illinois township.

Romney is a Wall-Street silver-spoon that may have wonderful pedigree, but he has a tremendous inability to attract people to him personally, has difficulty connecting to the 99%, and is just about as bad as Obama when speaking in an unscripted forum.  While his message is sometimes on point, he is simply brutal to listen to with that whispery voice.  I think he is a foreign policy noob just not as naive as Obama.

2)  FREAKING CUT THE DARN BUDGET
Do either one of them understand we are spending too much?  Romney's plan for spending reduction is to cut government spending in each year by 2016 by $500 Billion (if GDP is at 4%).  We are on track for a $1.2 Trillion deficit this year and there is no way you are going to get to 4% GDP if you are cutting government spending.  And there is no way he can repeal Obamacare, it is a lie.  I'm sick of it.

Obama is even worse, there are no cuts in sight for this guy, and his Senate hasn't even passed a budget in 3 years!  What makes us think he'd even submit a budget and have it approved after another election?

3)  IPHONE MANIA 
If I see another report of some stupid kid with the latest IPHONE 5 gleefully prancing around excited to have the newest electronic device that will be thrown away in 18 months, I'm going to puke.  When obtaining a new phone is the climatic personal achievement in one's life for a week, month, or year, you have a great indication that your generation and or your country is in total decline.

4)  THE FED WILL PRINT TILL WE REACH FULL EMPLOYMENT
HA!  This is probably one of the funniest jokes I've heard.  The Fed's actions pretty much assure us that we'll never reach full employment.   How's that record high September gas price on the lowest demand for fuel in 15 years treating you?  If the FED ever gets us to full employment we won't be able to afford to drive a car and fill it up to get to work.

5)  NFL REFS AREN'T BEGGING TO GET BACK ON THE FIELD
I think it will only be one more week and old NFL refs will agree to just about anything to get back on the field.  There have been a few minor screwups, but nothing major.  As long as the scabs don't blow a game this weekend, the old refs will sign any agreement the NFL owners put in front of them.  And rightly so, I'm so sick of unions.  The refs are not the focus of the game and as we've seen, we can do without the best of the best.  How an NFL referee deserves a pension is only an argument that a union could try to justify.

6)  WE BELIEVE ANYTHING THE ECB SAYS
How many times will it take investors to realize that the ECB says whatever it can to make the market happy and then it checks with its member states that actually have to approve it..  I'm tired of rallies based on unactionable promises without any substance.

7)  WE HAVE ALMOST 47 MILLION ON FOODSTAMPS
We have almost 15 percent of the US population obtaining free food from the government and we are questioning if our leadership in Congress and in the Oval office (or running against him) are the right people for the job.

8)  OUR ELECTION DEBATES ARE OVER WHO IS GOING TO BUY THE PILL FOR WOMEN
We have the stupidest media in the world.  Any viable candidate would answer every distraction like this simply by saying, "WHAT THE FOOK DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH GETTING AMERICA BACK TO WORK?  THIS IS A DIVERSION AND I WON'T EVEN DISCUSS IT".  If Chris Christi, Santa Claus, or Margaret Thatcher were running and said that, they'd have my vote in an instant.  Of course we don't have a candidate that can clearly focus on what matters, we have to discuss past tax returns and videos of Romney speaking about the 47% that would never vote for him.

9)  PENALTIES FOR OBAMACARE
I haven't heard anyone speaking about 2014 and the impact it will have on small and even large businesses.  Here is what I'm looking at with many of my clients.  How would you like it if you had this happen to you?

Here is an example of a 50 full-time employee company that doesn't offer health coverage AND has at least 1 that will use the health exchanges (which they all will).  (If you employ under 50 full-time employees you are not subject to a penalty.....yet).

The large employer does not offer coverage, and one or more full-time employees receive credits for exchange coverage. The annual penalty calculation is simply the number of full-time employees minus 30, times $2,000. In this example (i.e., 50 full-time employees), the penalty would not vary if only one employee or all 50 employees received the credit; the employer’s annual penalty in 2014 would be (50-30) x $2,000, or $40,000


Get that $40,000 just went POOF for this owner because he decided to own a business and have 50 employees!

Now before you give me the line that he is rich and making lots of money, think again, this is a small burger franchise that pays these people minimum wage.  Essentially, Justice Roberts just hammered this guy and raised his employee cost significantly.  Is it his responsibility to give health benefits to a guy he employs?  Why is it his responsibility?  Who came up with that?

Imagine you owned a liquor chain or clothing store or any other business.  Imagine employing 500 employees.  How would it feel to now have to pay $400,000 more in expenses just because Congress and the President make back-room deals and passed a law that we'd have to pass to know what was in it.

I'm guessing that every business owner with 50 employees might suddenly need to let one or two folks go due to the downturn of the economy.  I would, wouldn't you?  If that incremental one employee saves you $40,000 you'd be an idiot not to fire them or make them a part-time employee.

10)  CAN YOU TRUST EITHER SIDE OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE STORY
I have to admit it, I think there is an angle where someone is actually making big money on climate change and the green, earth-love religion.  Yes, I recycle like crazy, but I'm not a big believer in man made global warming or even "climate change".

First, when we have to change the name of the movement, errrr religion, you know we are missing the whole story.  We started with "Global Warming" and now we have "Climate Change".  I'd love to see a definitive study that rules out volcanoes and solar activity as the source of global warming.  I don't want to destroy economies based on the fact that "man has to be the cause."  Also, I am not sure if I want to sign up for anything that includes every bank and trading institution that suddenly is excited to trade carbon credits.  Clearly big money is at play if these guys are involved and it would make sense that global warming skeptics and supporters would throw gobs of cash to spin stories and propel governments to create regulations.

11)  THE ILLINOIS TEACHER'S UNION'S PENSION REDUCED THEIR RATE OF RETURN ASSUMPTION TO 8.0% DOWN FROM 8.5%.
Are these guys nuts?  Until we reduce the rate of return assumption for all pension plans to 3% or 4% there is no way that we'll ever be able to have a real conversation that will be based on sustainable math.  How is a pension going to ever make an annual rate of return of 8% and not take excess risk?  Wouldn't we want to build these plans with a cushion that builds in the ability to under-perform the 100 year average of the stock market?  Aren't pensions allocated a little differently than the stock market?

Yes, I know, if we changed the pension return assumptions to 4% it would require the plans to kick in significantly more and all of these unfunded liabilities would be immediately due and frankly unpayable, but are they payable now?  Isn't this just one of the many lies we all see plainly yet the entire system simply avoids discussing.  The pension system in the US is so much like the Madoff Ponzi scheme and our government and large companies are all participants.  Better hope your pension payments aren't greater than that US PENSION guarantee of $48,000 a year.

EXHAUSTED...
Ok, that is it.  I've been typing for about an hour and a half and I'm tired of sharing my inner rants.  Let me know if I missed any and if I offended any of you believers of the Green Religion please show a bit more restraint than the practitioners of the Religion of Peace and don't murder twenty or thirty people around you, torch cars, and foreign embassies, or leave nasty comments on the blog.  Have a great weekend.


GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments athttp://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

MARKETING WORKS - FOODSTAMP UPDATE


SNAP IS AWESOME!  GET YA SOME!
The government's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has been a powerful success by any measure.  While hard economic times have certainly driven participation in the program in recent years due to the "Great Recession", longer term trends suggest that the foodstamp initiative is amazingly effective at adding to its roles.

The government released June data this month and highlighted that more than 46.67 million Americans are now receiving food assistance.  The new figures show that we have erased the recent drops in participation in February and April and have pushed to new record highs.  We are 3.3% higher than a year ago and 1/2% greater than last month.






DIFFERENT WORLDS?
Stock markets would have us believe that things are better and the outlook much more positive, how can we justify equity index gains and the record participation in government food programs?  We must look only to a massive effort by the last two administrations to drive up enrollment.  The USDA under the leadership of George Bush and President Obama have emphasized participation in the program and we've even had tremendous marketing efforts on television and radio to get the word out that free food is available.  The USDA is spending almost $3 million dollars to get eligible participants to apply for the service in California, Texas, Ohio, and New York.  They are specifically targeting the elderly, working poor, unemployed, and of course.....hispanics (why this group is singled out I have no idea, as if they wouldn't fit in the other highlighted groups??).

TERRIBLE STORIES
The USDA has stepped up its efforts saying that there are more than 1 in 4 eligible people in the US that still haven't applied for the benefits they are eligible to obtain!  Take a look at the video from CNN below.  As I watch this I am simply mortified for this family that they have endured 4 years of struggle.  The frustration they must feel and the shame they obviously feel is terrible as they wouldn't agree to show their faces on camera.  As much as I can empathize with them,  I am also disturbed by the lack of creative thought and noticeable lack of initiative their entire family has shown.  I can guarantee you that the father could start his own small cleaning business or janitorial supply business and earn more than the $18,000 annually the family has made as he labors as an hourly worker.  In addition, I find it hard to believe that the wife isn't working too.





After four years, I would hope that they had improved their situation and I am sure that they do too.  I just almost believe that these "safety nets" have created a group of people that are incapable of being self-reliant and creating their own success.  Clearly they didn't have significant savings as they said they were broke immediately and clearly they have some situation that prevents them from undertaking heroic measures to address their situation (possibly some health issue?).  While I am sorry that the son cannot go to college, I am left wondering why he isn't working and contributing his earnings to his family?  The family has had food assistance, free living (not paying their mortgage), and obviously other benefits too, the question is how will they get out of this mess?  Will they just continue to hope for a corporate job, or will they endeavor to try something new?  My guess is that Obama or Romney won't be able to help someone that clearly hopes to be restored to his previous position and station in life.

SAFETY NETS ARE TRAPS - GOVERNMENTS CREATING DEPENDENCY
Instead of ramping up food program expenditures, I would rather see the government get out of the business of trying to serve more folks.  If a government program must be created, make it mandatory that recipients enter a technical job training co-operative as we continually hear that America lacks skilled labor and jobs at specialized manufacturing plants are plentiful.  I am choking as I'm writing this as it sounds like I'm advocating more government, but it seems as though it is inevitable that the government is going to spend, spend, spend, perhaps it is more reasonable to demand where they are going to allocate it.

The USDA sees lots of new candidates out there and we've seen how effective they are at using marketing to reduce the stigma associated with the lack of desire or inability to provide for basic needs for a family.  I guess we can only predict that we'll see increased role size and more than $80 Billion in annual program expenditures in the near future.  One has to wonder what is wrong with the 85% of the population that isn't using foodstamps, I'm guessing it won't be long till some are enticed to join the program.


GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments athttp://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Thursday, May 17, 2012

HOW MUCH DOES $6 BILLION BUY? - FOOD STAMPS


ONLY 46 MILLION ARE NEEDY, 270 MILLION TO GO!
The release of the SNAP data for February highlights that we are still near record usage for foodstamps here in the US.   The month of February panned out with the following details.

46,326,352 of your fellow citizens are using your tax dollars to feed themselves and their families.
The cost to feed these folks was right at $6.160 Billion.  The average family receives about $278 a month.

YTD, actual participation is down 27bps!! ALRIGHT!  Year-over-year usage is still up 4.8%.


SNAP DATA - http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm




NO REASON NOT TO, GIVE ME MORE!
The improvement in the data is slight, but I am hopeful that this trend continues.  When we examine the growth of the program it is not hard to see how it came about as the economic times have been tough.  At the same time, we have forces within the system attempting to create and increase dependency  on the government.  In 2010, California renamed their foodstamp program to CALFRESH in an attempt to remove the "stigma" of receiving foodstamps.  Is it any wonder we have citizens demanding services and saying that they deserve to be taken care of?  No, we have officials that tell users of programs that it is their right to be served and cared for, that the role of government is to make sure everyone is healthy, full of food, happy, and catered to.  The notion that government is the benefactor of course is a lie.  Government simply crowds out those people that would naturally step in and care for the needy.  Government also is only the middleman that doles out services by taking funds and spewing them out in an inefficient manner.

I don't want government programs to advertise on radio, tv, and print that they have all this "free stuff" and it is very acceptable to receive benefits.  I WANT there to be a stigma associated with living for free, for receiving free food, for having medical care that someone else provides and pays for.  When there is no stigma there is not any attribution that the services are scarce and that there is an expectation that they will only be provided for a short time.  When advertisements scream that the government wants to provide these resources it suddenly conveys that there is no limit to the amount of benefit that can be received and it costs people nothing.  By having a massive entity taking in taxes and distributing services we create an impersonal situation where recipients never see the real cost of the benefits and feel as though they need to maximize the amount they receive in any way.  (Think about having an insurance company pay your medical bills - you have no real idea about the cost, so you use the benefits as much as possible).

The promotion of dependency must stop for the good of our nation, it's poor, and for the ones that are seen as the producers in our country.  If the target continues to be placed on our most successful, we can bet that the incentive to earn and gain will be less great.


GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

HAPPY THOUGHTS - MACRO UPDATE FOR FEBRUARY

IT JUST FEELS BETTER 
Clear your mind for a second and forget that there are these things called bonds, that there is a European economic zone called the EU, and that a small little island country called Greece owes a boat load of money to just about everyone.  Don't you feel calm and relaxed?  I thought you might.  Now that you've erased from your consciousness any troubling aspects related the global economic reality, we can focus on good thoughts and ponder just how great things are getting in the USA.  Are you ready?  Let's hit it!


MONSTER EMPLOYMENT INDEX - http://www.about-monster.com/employment/index/15
The Monster.com Employment Index is a metric I like to follow because it gives us a pretty good look at what Monster.com is doing when it comes to on-line job listings.  January is usually a down month, so we can't get too worried about a decline following the year-end holiday.  Despite the drop, we have see a pretty consistent improvement in year-over-year terms where listings have been on a steady 8.5% to 9% increase over the previous year.

It is critical that we don't see a continued slowdown in the trend here through February as it usually marks the turning point for online job listings for the year and typically we see a peak in the late summer and early fall months.



SCRAP COMPOSITE INDEX-
The Maestro, Alan Greenspan, watched the prices on scrap metal as an indicator of financial expansion.  Who are we to argue with the greatest money printer and bubble blower of all time?  Scrap prices were in a serious decline until December when almost every asset on the planet caught a bid.  The move up may indicate that global inflationary forces are at once at work within our economic system.





FOODSTAMPS - SNAP DATA
I wanted to include this information without further comment.  If you missed the recent post on this data, please go to the link at - WHAT'S UP WITH THE PO' FOLK





BLOOMBERG FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEX - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BFCIUS:IND
The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is still below the 0.00 level which highlights in some improbable way that the economy and markets are still in contraction mode.  How is this possible when market indices are nearing October 2007 levels?  Who knows, but the Financial Conditions Index simply reveals that we are still in a recessionary mode, although we are very close to breaking out into the clear again.  Interestingly, each time we have approached a level that was positive or near 1.00, our markets have corrected significantly.


USD INDEX -
The USD's travels to the lower right corner of my chart below puts the US situation in a pretty clear light as we can really evaluate the longer term trend of our currency.  Don't ever question whether out-going Treasury Secretary Geithner wants a strong currency....(cue Chinese student and Goatmug laughter!!).  Another interesting point is that the USD is near the level we saw in October 1, 2007 at $77.81 right as things US markets attempted for a retest of equity highs achieved in July of 2007.  (On 1/31/12 we ended at $77.86)



USD (CON'T) - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:IND
Here is a 1 year view of the USD Index.  The fall of the USD in the last two months has been the fuel for much of the stock market rally.  What happens if the fall doesn't continue?




BALTIC DRY GOODS SHIPPING INDEX - 
I'm about to throw the Baltic Dry Goods Index in the pile of "Who Knows What is Happening Here" as we continue to see a monster decline in spot shipping rates for global dry goods transport.  We have heard all of the reasons for the decline, that there is an over-supply of ships coming into the market, depressing the spot price.  We've heard that China is no longer importing commodities at the rate they did previously.  The one serious take away one can make is that shippers are enduring quite a collapse in prices as this index just a few years ago was over $100,000.  It is hard to imagine any company being able to withstand an implosion of 95% of their pricing.  Did I mention these firms are more debt than Greece?  Can't be a good recipe.




INTERBANK LENDING RATES - 6 MOS LIBOR -
Below is a picture of a 25 year history of 6 month Libor rates.  At .75% we can see the affect that this prolonged period of stress has had on lending rates.  In an effort to provide extreme liquidity in the face of bank distrust, central banks have driven inter-bank lending to historic lows.




Euribor also gives us a tip that something coordinated is going on with the banking environment.  Notice in November rates began going down.  As central banks goosed the system we've seen lending rates decline and equity markets rise.  Coincidence?  Probably not, recall that equity market have simply risen without a red day for the last 2 straight months.





TED SPREAD - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/!TEDSP:IND/chart
Building on the theme from the Euribor chart above we examine the Ted Spread which is another stress or fear indicator.  According to the Ted Spread, everything is just getting finer!




TRADING UPDATE
The year has progressed right along the path that I anticipated it would and as I laid out in my 2012 Predictions post titled CONFIDENCE LOST; 13 For 2012.  What I mean by, "it's progressed like I laid out", I mean that we are moving much higher in the indices and we are making a strong run into the late April or May top we'll see.  Does this mean that there won't be a few down days?  Can it be possible to have a 5% drop here and still keep this thesis in tact?  Of course, in fact, I am looking for a  drop here as even the $SPX is up 8% year-to-date.  If anything, we'd really have to question what would propel the market higher in such a short time wouldn't we? (Tongue and cheek of course!)

I looked back at a few of the items that I was really centered on in the predictions post and I highlighted a few that have easily hit their targets.  WNR and UGA have already hit $17 and $54 respectively.  Each of these have posted pretty respectable gains since I put those on.  I mentioned that VLO could go to $27 and I still believe that is easily in the cards, but it has clearly lagged WNR, (which was and is my favorite).  Here is the deal though, with almost a 50% gain in WNR and a health 20% profit in UGA, is there any reason to press my luck?  No!  In fact, a drop here would be a perfect set up to leg in and rebuy my positions for a move higher into late April and May.  Profit is profit!

I am still very bullish on gasoline and am staying with that slant through the next few months.  I still think there is a possibility that we move as much as 8% to 10% lower in the next couple of weeks.  

TIRED RALLY?
I am trying to keep an open mind about several positions that look very suspect.  I've played around with very small positions on XHB trying to find a successful entry on a short position, but have managed to take a few flesh wounds in the process and have been glad to have stops all the way up as XHB defied gravity last week.  The open mind here comes in play in that this housing etf could very well scream higher to $23 which is the September 2008 level.  XHB bulls are saying that new housing looks to be improving, that the mortgage settlement will clear the path for more new homes, and housing financing rates are low.  A bear might just hear that and say that lots more housing supply is coming online and no one can get financing anyway.

From a chartist perspective I see that XHB has pushed above resistance at the $19.90 level, but has dropped back through it over the last two days AND was trading previously at a level 2 standard deviations above the 50 day SMA on this 3 Yr Weekly Chart.  I like to think that stocks that trade that high above the overall trend will fade back down to at least the overall trend line, so this has been the basis for my short attempts.  



Finally, I don't have the courage to short this one, but if there is a chart that shows something WAY above it's trend and trading well above 2 standard deviations, it would be this little company.  Everything in me says to short it, the last 3 years of history keep me from doing it.



Domestic economic stuff looks pretty good right now and perhaps the US economy is getting on track.  In early January I anticipated a continued improvement in economic metrics in the first half of this year.  I was a bit worried when two of my favorite writers disagreed fully with my analysis and made projections that the first half of the year would be flat and the back half of the year would be strong.  I think both writers felt that the election cycle would come into play and markets would rally.  I feel almost vindicated as Chris Puplava has intimated that he actually sees a reversal setting up in his outlook where the first half is good and the back half is....not so good, which aligns with my stated market direction.  My other favorite writer also has altered his forecast so there I'm not surrounded by folks that agree with my way of thinking.  (Perhaps it is time to change my view?)

For me, the key is that if we have continued Federal Reserve action we will see gasoline surge higher. As gasoline exceeds $4.00 in early April and May, we will see an immediate drop in US domestic economic activity and all these happy thoughts we've been training ourselves to have won't mean much as our growth grinds to a halt.  I've have more on this topic this weekend.

Be Careful!



GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/ 

Thursday, February 9, 2012

WHAT IS IT LIKE TO BE POOR?

WHAT'S FAIR?
I've been thinking about how our President continually describes people in the US as though they are treated unfairly and they don't receive everything they deserve.  Mr. Obama often suggests that "those people should pay their fair share", and I guess the assumption by folks that listen and believe his comments must believe that the "fair share" will somehow be spent on funding services for others, perhaps even themselves.

As readers know, I am absolutely fine with wealthy people paying taxes, I just want someone to tell me where the limits of "fair share" are and then make a constitutional amendment to mandate that taxation cannot ever exceed "fair share".  What I'm getting at is that Obama's "fair share" today may be 50% of earned income or 60%, but we all know that the amount will go up in time as entitlement programs and benefit services skyrocket and the need for revenue increases dramatically in the future.  In other words, without some cap, there will always be someone that thinks those rich folks don't contribute enough to the poor people.

WHAT'S IT LIKE?
I often wonder about the lives of the needy in our country as I tend to pay attention to the amount of services that are available to low income earners because my health insurance business often allows me to speak with desperate people that have no income that need medical care.  In my practice I am able to guide them to services and programs in our state that are available at low or no cost to provide medical care.  As I educate myself on these topics, I often find other services that are made available to our poor and down on their luck citizens.

WHAT CAN YOU GET FOR BEING POOR?
A recent article I found summarizes one program that I've known about for some time called the Lifeline program where people below the poverty level can obtain cell phones or phone lines.  The "grant" provided in this plan will cover about 250 cell phone minutes per month for free to the qualified user.  I found this program because I saw a commercial on television that was advertising to seniors and suggested that they could qualify for a free cell phone!



WASHINGTON FOOTS THE CELL PHONE BILL FOR OUR POOR


Obviously a program like this was started with great intentions, but as you read the article, you will find that there is some segment of the recipients of the program that have the services, but don't qualify, or have obtained cell phones at multiple carriers, therefore abusing the free system.  Ultimately those in either camp are stealing from the US taxpayer and our government oversight is clearly lacking.  As a cell phone or land line user, you pay significant taxes each month to fund this program, you should know about it and should be pissed off that the government assumes there is about $200 million in theft or mismanagement going on in this $1.6 billion program.

Ok, cell phones are paid for and we know that food stamps are available through the SNAP Program that I report on monthly. (See the most recent post where I outline that 46 million of our fellow citizens are receiving benefits - WHAT'S UP WITH THE PO' FOLK?).  We know that states offer Medicaid services for health insurance for low income earners.  We also have heard about housing benefits for those that live in low-income housing (section 8 housing).  Essentially, I'm painting the picture here that many of the basic and not-so basic needs of a person are being met for individuals and families that are below the poverty line in the USA.

Let's dig a bit deeper then and examine the life style of our poor.  I recently found a book that reveals several key statistics about our poorest and highlights while they are "relatively poor" they do live quite comfortable lives.  The life-style of many of these people is not quite like the poverty-stricken, dirty, and hunger-ridden life we might expect.  Scott Rasmussen's book, "The People's Money: How Voters Will Balance The Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt", highlights some facts that illuminate just how well off our poor really are. - WHAT IS POVERTY IN THE US?

FOOD PROGRAMS -

  • Parent report they have kids that go hungry  - (only .25% of US homes)
  • 1% of households report that they miss a meal in the day


CAR OWNERSHIP -

  • 70% report they own a car
  • 30% report they own two or more cars!

CABLE TV
  • 63% state that they have cable tv or some other tv service


Rasmussen highlights other items like the fact that 23% use TIVO, 50% have a computer, and 53% have a gaming system.  I guess where he is going here is that these are absolutely not necessary and they are considered luxury items....if you are really poor.  I don't really get to worked up about these, but I do get fired up about cable tv subscriptions.  Both car ownership and cable tv come along with monthly costs.  Clearly car insurance is expensive, but you can use a car to work and pull yourself out of poverty.  Unfortunately, cable tv expenses for our least fortunate is not defensible and is really the thing that makes me the most angry.  Cable bills can range from $50 to $200 a month and this service has become a "right" for our poor.  I've met and counseled many struggling families that need assistance with budgeting and debt management.  One of the first items I challenge them to cut is cable and you can't believe the resistance that I receive.  Perhaps I am nuts, but people that are poor don't "deserve" cable television, it is a luxury and that income could be spent wisely on anything else!

WANT THE BOOK?
Buy the book by Scott Rasmussen from our Amazon Link - The People's Money
(Oh yes, and if you buy anything from Amazon, please go through our search box at the upper right hand of our page!)

US POVERTY RATES BY RACIAL MAKEUPhttp://ardd.sph.umich.edu/about_diabetes_disparities.html

  • 25.9 percent for American Indians
  • 25.8 percent for African-Americans
  • 25.3 percent for Hispanics
  • 9.4  percent for non-Hispanic whites.

CORPORATE PROFIT MAXIMIZATION
Unfortunately, we are a nation of entrepreneurs.  (I don't really mean unfortunately in that sense, I mean that we are so good at it we tend to over do it).  Because we have a system where the great big generous government will meet our poor's needs, we have created an incentive for corporations and organizations to try to maximize sales to the beneficiaries of these governmental services, that often could care less if there is waste or fraud involved.  We've seen this example with the Scooter Store, a Texas wheel chair company that misled senior citizens and filed many false Medicare claims.
http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2007/May/07_civ_344.html  Ultimately the Scooter Store paid millions to the federal government and the cause of the problem comes back to the fact that the users of the services didn't pay for them!  When you are spending your own money, you actually care how much things cost.

By creating programs that are paid for and "monitored" by the federal government, cell phone companies advertise heavily and attempt to maximize the number of folks using the "free" system.  This is why the Lifeline program is full of waste, companies are marketing to the user, not the payer, and in this case the payer has no limit on how much they will spend.  While I expect more from businesses and owners, you can't help but to admire a firm that recognizes there is an untapped opportunity to harvest gains in the business landscape by exploiting the demands of users who will not pay for the services.

MEETING ALL NEEDS WILL MAKE KEEP SOME PORTION OF PEOPLE.....POOR FOR EVERMORE
Is the welfare life a good life?  I don't think so, but maybe it is compared to working hard and receiving little or no incremental benefit for your labor.  In other words, if I find a job paying $8 an hour and I have to pay for my own cell phone, food, rent, and other basics by myself with no assistance, I may have a bit more money, but I'm worn out and haven't made any real growth.  I can imagine that this is the logical exercise that many participants go through when evaluating their decision to find a job or two or three.  If you are killing yourself and you are worse off compared to receiving benefits and not working, you'd probably make the rational choice to make less or give less effort.  I think this is the problem with making benefits so generous, it clouds the decision making process and makes the decision less clear cut.

The killer here is that if you provide just enough subsistence benefit to placate some people you will create generations of poor that learn to "work the system" and never get out.  I think the best example of this was New Orleans before Hurricane Katrina.  There were many families with three and four generations receiving benefits from governmental agencies providing for all of their needs.  This corruption of the system ultimately hurt an entire city of people that were stuck in a system of poverty for years and years.  Rather than changing the system and educating the public there, we created a legion of benefit experts that could exploit all of the provisions of social security benefits, welfare benefits and all other types of assistance.  Ultimately, the creation of an entire class of people in the USA that receive subsistence help forever was not the design of the safety net system.

BEING POOR....SHOULD SUCK
Finally, I know that this post may be perceived as a "rich goat" not wanting to share his money with the poor guy, and frankly it isn't.  What this post is about is that we as a nation need to determine what level of life-style we will support for our poorest men, women, and children.  If we decide that at x-income level we will provide food, shelter, healthcare, cellphone, cable television, and a car, we are going to actually attract a whole lot of people that decide that level of "minimum life-style" seems quite fine.  Bad incentives often result in poor outcomes.  For example, if we pay women more section 8 housing allowances, SNAP dollars, and other benefits based on the number of children they have, we'll probably end up with more poor children!

I'm attacking the notion that poverty should be comfortable.  Being poor sucks,.....and it should stink enough to prod the marginally poor to improve, work hard, and strive to become productive.  The problem with an ever-increasing demand for the rich to provide their "fair-share" through taxation is that government mechanism for that payment process is inefficient and sucks away a large amount of resources in waste (federal government cost, fraud, and time).  Federal programs have a tendency to get larger and larger and the aim of the programs should be to be so successful that their use declines.

Unfortunately we don't see declining participation in these programs as free money usually only attracts more and more free money takers.  I'd have less of a problem with many of these programs if they were tied to technical and vocational job training certification programs.  We hear from our large manufacturing employers that the skills they need are not met here in the USA and therefore they go to emerging countries to set up plants to find that skilled labor force.  Why not make technical job training programs mandatory to receive housing, SNAP, cellphone, or medicare benefits?  Why not make the poor life-style with paid housing, healthcare benefits, two cars, cable, a DVD player, game system, VCR, and monthly food payments a temporary program that lifts people up into the next group of earners and make a life long stay in an impoverished state a little less attractive?


GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/ 

Thursday, February 2, 2012

WHAT'S UP WITH THE PO' FOLK? - FOODSTAMPS

It has been a while since I got in the mode of doing monthly macro-reviews.  This lack of posting the monthly update has been related to my end-of-the-year business cycle as it is my craziest time in my work each December.  In an effort to get back in the swing of things I wanted to check in on the SNAP data which is a Federal summary of the Federal Food Stamps Program.  Each state creates their own rules for the distribution of these benefits, but the bill is paid for by you and me (if you pay taxes!).  I really wanted to focus on this data today because I am working a follow up post that will shed some light on who the recipients of these benefits really are.

HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY?
In America, we have a tendency to lean only two ways when it comes to federal benefits and entitlements.  One side always thinks that people that receive federal assistance are lazy and simply just sucking off the taxpayer .....well you know what I mean.  The other side seems to want assistance for everyone assuming that the government is there to provide each man, woman, and child all of the things they deserve and should have as their God given right.  This group often goes to extremes and feels strongly that the poorest of the poor should have everything provided.  Personally, I think I'm somewhere in the middle, but I find myself leaning more to one or the other based on how many encounters I have with folks down on their luck.

IMPROVEMENT IS GREAT, IS THIS MEANINGFUL?
Before I go any further about that, let me just share the November 2011 data that was just released that shows a continuation (I know, it is small) of the decline of people on the food stamp roles.  We now have two straight months of declines from the peak seen in September of 2011.  This is an important development because this is the first time since January 2007 that we have seen two back to back months of declines in the participation numbers.  This is no small feat, and could be an indication that the US economy, and more importantly the least financially healthy, are making a comeback.




DOES TWO MONTHS SIGNAL THE ALL CLEAR?


Unfortunately, the monthly decrease has not erased the disturbing trends we saw over the course of the year. The 46,133,787 people in the program is a 4.4% increase over year-end levels in 2010 and this represents a 5.8% increase year-over-year from November 2010.  Clearly these figures are lagging, so it is very important for us to see these trends continue.  The decline in this statistic is a great measure that will suggest that people are getting back to work and standing on their own.  We need this improvement badly for the financial health of the country and the psychological health of the nation.


GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/ 


Wednesday, October 26, 2011

GOVERNMENT CHEESE MUST BE GOOD (SNAP DATA)

NON STOP GOVERNMENT GOODNESS
My hopes were dashed this month when I finally took the opportunity to look at the July SNAP data.  This report reveals the number of folks partaking in the government SNAP program, or simply put the food stamps program.

Once again we have 45.3 million people accepting the benefits of the SNAP program (2nd highest being May 2011), and we are paying an annual benefit cost of $6.087 billion.  These levels are 8.4% greater than last year and are a 2.6% year-to-date increase.





DO ALL THESE PEOPLE REALLY NEED THIS?
45,000,000 people is a lot of people.  My feelings on the program are mixed because I believe there are deserving and desperate folks that absolutely need assistance and then I know that there are a bunch of lazy, self-serving, system-scamming people that are just taking advantage of a bloated government sponsored give away.  Callous?  Not at all.  Since this federal plan is administered on the state level, the individual states determine the specific rules for the usage of these funds in their territory.  Some states are tough about doling out benefits, others, not so much.  Tight fiscal budgets have led to a review of the liberal views of passing out free government cheese to anyone and everyone.

Please examine the link here about the state of Michigan and their experience with the food stamp initiative -  (As you know I have about 15 to 20 stories in my queue at a time, and this link was one I had in early August that I was going to write about.  That old link doesn't work, so here is another that is a summary).  In this story, we find that Michigan kicked off about 30,000 college students that were abusing the system or at least maximizing the benefits available to them!

Despite the move to kick those deadbeats out of the program we find that the July Food Stamp data shows and increase in participants after the small decline we witnessed in June.

I wonder if the OWS guys qualify for these programs?  I'm sure they do, if they are demanding free college tuition they must have already achieved free food, shelter, and clothing since those are the basic needs of each human.  Now those needs are met by the government, it is only right to expect more efforts to provide every want and need these kids could imagine.


GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Thursday, August 4, 2011

1.1 MILLION NEW GUESTS INVITED TO THE PARTY! (SNAP DATA)



WOW!
That is pretty much all I can say this month as we get a view of the monthly SNAP (Food stamps data for May 2011).  Wasn't it just one month ago when I was gushing all over this recovery saying that this could potentially be the inflection point that we all had been looking for?  Didn't the trustworthy data from the Ministry of Truth show a decline of SNAP costs in April?  Wasn't the slowing pace of growth in January, February, and April the affirmation that our hopes had finally found a home?  Well, clearly, the answer is NO! 

RECORDS YOU DON'T WANT TO BREAK
SNAP data for May shows that plan enrollment increased by a whopping 1,105,217 people which is an increase of 2.4% over the preceding month.  This is the second highest participant growth reading in my six years worth of data AND is the highest monthly percentage increase ever in that time frame!  The greatest increase was in September of 2008.

LOW LIGHTS 
  • This month's data shows a 3.5% year-to-date increase in participants.
  • Costs for the SNAP plan increased by $172 million this month to $6.1 Billion.
  • 45.8 million people are in the plan which is now 14.9% of the nation.  That is 1 out of every 7 people on the government dole.
THE BIG PARTY!
Apparently the government is inviting everyone to this awesome party.  We've got 1.1 million new guests all decked out and ready to celebrate the greatness and largess of the good old USA.  One out of every 7 people in the US!  I guess the only question we have to ask ourselves now is who is this party for?  Who could possibly mobilize so many people and create such excitement?  The party is obviously for our wonderful President!  He does turn 50 after all and no one wants to miss a beautiful occasion and an opportunity to fawn over our beloved leader.  The guests just can't get enough of the party favors and goodies, it almost seems like they could do this party every month, and why not?  It doesn't cost them anything? (Last rant here I promise.   Are you kidding me, people really celebrate his birthday!?  Are we done with the worship of him yet?)


GOATMUG




Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

UNCOMMON INDICATORS - SAME RESULTS

I found an interesting video on CNBC (yes, all fluff and they try to make all things positive).  The CNBC gang interviews Nick Colas who tracks internet searches on Google to attempt to find trends that might indicate where companies and the economy are going.

Clearly everything in the economy is not roses as he responded several times, "that's a tough one" meaning that because the search term was showing up more and more that didn't mean that things were getting better.  Essentially this interview highlights one of my issues with the CNBC hosts, they enter into the interview with the thought that these indicators are to reveal bullish information, hence the panelist is in a position to defend the data and almost apologize if the data is negative.  Truthfully, it isn't hard to figure it out, you just examine the results, question it, and then accept it.




Here are the search trends he follows;

GOOGLE SEARCHES FOR HOME BUYING - I get this one, I hadn't thought about that.  I would state though that I'm hearing more and more complaints from realtors and mortgage lenders that they can't get buyers that can get financing.  In my city this is really blowing up potential deals and causing slow sales. 

SEARCHES FOR USED CARS  - He doesn't share with us the numbers for used cars, but this would be useful to see if folks are going to try to buy new cars or buying used.  I keep hearing lots of optimism from the auto industry about their growth prospects and how things have changed.  I wanted to examine these indicators for myself and so I used the Google Automotive Search Index results as a high level "smell" test.  Interestingly the index values show a couple of striking things.  First, we are currently at a level that is much higher than last year, which was horrible.  This is wonderful and you can see how the executives at the manufacturers are excited that things are looking up.  Despite the good news, we see that this is also a level that is similar to 2007, which wasn't exactly awesome.  On top of that you must account for a growing number of searches as people are using media and search more, much more than they did 4 years ago, so this too should make us pause a little.  Finally, we have just exited the typical peak point in sales and searches in terms of seasonality.  Last week I posted a chart on GM, I'm not getting long anytime soon. - GM CHART FROM 7/22/11.  Take a look at the Google Search Index for Autos below.



SEARCHES FOR GUNS -
I'm not exactly sure that guns are a great indicator of improving financial health as Nick tried to spin this.  His angle is that guns are a $300 to $500 durable good like a washing machine or refrigerator.  Somehow I'm not thinking that gun searches are a marker that citizens feel confidence in an improving economy.  I believe that folks feel like the system is breaking down and the government cannot protect them.  Perhaps folks aren't looking to prepare for Mad Max times, but their search for the best gun for them may mean that they are concerned about the increasing risk of break-ins and their security.  Oh yes, if you are in the market for guns you might consider the Mossberg 500 or 590 and the Glock 23 as a starting point in your research.

SILVER AND GOLD -
We've discussed this at great length, people across the world are buying gold and silver as the un-currency and as an inflation hedge.  If "investors" are looking to buy gold and silver, they don't have a lot of confidence in traditional investments. 


FOOD STAMPS -
The Goatmug Blog tracks food stamp usage every month, but I like the idea of watching these trends to see how many searches are being performed in real time. This approach may give us insight into what numbers will look like several months in advance.  Regular readers know that we report these dismal figures in the monthly update and last month's figures show that almost 45 million people are on the roles and as the panelist described one in five families receive food stamps.  How disgusting!

GOOGLE TRENDS

If you have a desire to check out some of these you can look at Google Trends to examine word searches and also you can use this link in Google Finance - http://www.google.com/finance?q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:AUTO

I did searches for durable goods and other items and many of the results show how poor the us consumer is right now in terms of discretionary spending.  Durable goods searches are at 7 years lows, but it is beginning to tick up compared to last year's horrible totals in year over year trend!  Wow! 

At the end of the day I like this approach it may give us a view of coming changes in trend in a real time format.  At least Google's spying is good for something right?

GOATMUG

 
Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/




Saturday, July 2, 2011

FOODSTAMPS ARE GOING LIKE HOTCAKES!

April's SNAP (Food stamp program) data release provides another glimpse into the on-going recovery we are not having for our economically challenged folks.  The food stamp roles continue to show monthly gains to levels that have not been seen.

The number of participants receiving government benefits now totals 44.65 million citizens that count on government distribution of taxpayer funds for meals.  Clearly the cost doesn't stop there as these same recipients also probably qualify for health care services and child care benefits.  Don't get me wrong, this lifestyle isn't so grand as the average person receives $131.00 a month in support and the average family takes in $282.00 a month in payments for food related help.  It is just mind blowing to me that 14.5% of our entire nation is living on the taxpayer dole.  I'm sure there are a large number of folks out there that are too independent to actually apply for these benefits even though they qualify for them.

I find it compelling that our stock market continues to rip higher (kinda) while our population of non-stockholder SNAP participants continues to increase.  In other words, the divide between the haves and have-nots continues to increase.  Interestingly, the policies of the Federal Reserve to increase inflation to their 2% inflation target will exacerbate this problem!  Those people that don't have assets that will appreciate more than inflation or at least hopefully keep pace with it will fall deeper and deeper into a hole made entirely by our own central bank!  We better hope that this commodity price inflation is transitory Uncle Ben.

APRIL SNAP DATA





Here are a few more details of the report.

USAGE FACTS
1 month increase or decrease   + .14%
YTD increase or decrease  +1.0%
YOY increase or decrease +10.4%

ANY GOOD NEWS HERE?
As a glass half-full kind of goat I always look for the positive and I see two things that make me optimistic.  First, we see a drop in that actual total benefit cost of the program.  April shows that there was a drop in cost by $33 million.  This is great news, and keeps us from eclipsing the $6 Billion annual cost level.  This drop in pricing is only the second one in almost two years. 

Second, the rate of change of people coming on to the program is now almost at zero (.14%) which is the second lowest total since November 2008 when there was a drop of 1.7% of the participants in the program.  These are great signs and I'm hopeful the drop is a symptom of higher employment for our nation.  Perhaps all those shovel-ready projects are coming on line now?  Perhaps.


GOATMUG



Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/