GOLDILOCKS - METALS UPDATE

AMAZING PUSH HIGHER
Gold, silver, and pretty much all commodities have been on a tear recently.  I had updated a post several weeks ago mentioning that silver was a strong buy and thought that we might see resistance at $31.50.  I never posted that post here on the blog, but put it up on Tim's blog www.slopeofhope.com .  I suggest you visit his site daily.  Anyway, the title of that post was POUR SOME MONEY ON ME - SILVER UPDATE from August 12th.  In the post I suggested that everyone was supportive of the Fed that is supportive of the policies that will push silver and other commodities higher.  With unlimited bond buying promises from the ECB and a Fed meeting on the 13th, the commodities markets went into overdrive and quickly blew through all previous areas of overhead trouble.

Levels on SLV to watch now include $35.50 and $42.50.  Please note, I used SLV, not silver in this chart!

Finally, enjoy this bullish video from Frank Holmes and Jonathan Barratt as they discuss the outlook for gold, silver, wheat, and other commodities.

BIG WEEK THIS WEEK
Key things to watch this week are the German High Court ruling on the legality of the ECB bond-buying actions (Wednesday) and on the 13th, the Fed will come out an stimulate us again.

GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments athttp://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

YOU CAN NEVER HAVE ENOUGH OF A GOOD THING

More QE?  Now?  I thought the economic situation in the US was getting better?  I thought employment was improving?  What could possibly lead the Fed and it's newly elected doves to conclude that the US economy needs another dose of the economic elixir that heals all woes?

Apparently, there is something out there that these guys see as a significant risk to cause them to want to double down and flood the economy with more liquidity.  It doesn't matter if it doesn't help the real economy, asset values may go higher, so thus we probably need more of it huh?  Or, is it even more simple, is it just the non-partisan Fed working the election cycle?

Enjoy the video where Steve Liesman from CNBC examines the possibility of more action by the Fed to save us from even the possibility of a slow down.  He also mentions something I highlighted last year that the composition of the Fed has changed again and those terrible fiscal and monetary hawks have been replaced by doves that are all for pushing the envelope of monetary safety.



The stunner here for me is that message expressed in the video that even if GDP comes in a 3% or more, there is a real possibility for Fed intervention.  Perhaps this talk is simply setting the ground work with a plausible threat for action by the Fed as we know they like to believe that the mere mention of their action will cause market participants to act in new and risky ways.

If we consider that a breakdown of the Greek situation is coming and very rapidly, these may be not-so-subtle efforts to pre-warn the market that they will be acting to keep the world from ending.....again.

GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

JOBS - 16.1% UNEMPLOYMENT?

I think Rick Santelli from CNBC has an entertaining rant about the jobs report.  Enjoy.

As of 1:13 today the Dow is now up, isn't it great to invest in a market where securities never go down?

GOATMUG

NFLX - EXITING THE SHORT AND MORE PILING ON?

The NFLX short I highlighted the other day just keeps getting better.  While I have a tendency to make quick profits and run, I saw this interview this morning where Daniel Ernst of Hudson Square Research simply has a view of NFLX that many don't.  His price target for the firm is $75.



During the interview he highlights three of his reasons for hating the stock - and none of them include the higher cost of responsibility for paying for the heavy weight data they are forcing through the internet pipes.  He gets more leeway than normal for a bear on CNBC, I wish he spoke faster so he could have been able to share his 4th reason for hating the movie vendor.

I'm am now officially out of this position for a very big and wonderful gain in just a few days.  As usual, if you are foolish enough to buy a stock (or short it) based on something some blogger writes, you are nuts!  This information is educational and for your entertainment, not so you can blow up your accounts!  As a trader I have made lots of money and lost a heck of a lot too over the years.  If you don't understand risk and know how to control losses you don't need to purchase anything in this rigged stock market (or bond market for that matter).  There is a pretty good chance at $179 and perhaps $165 that NFLX bounces hard.  If that happens, I'll be tempted to reshort, but until then it feels good to have profits in the account.

BE CAREFUL

GOATMUG

BOND BUBBLE DISCUSSION BREWS TWO GREAT QUOTES

Ok, I was holding on to this post till later in the week, but when I watched it today on CNBC I just couldn't believe my eyes.  If the guest goes off the reservation on CNBC he will be admonished!  This is really funny and really sad at the same time.

Great interview with Michael Pento of Euro Pacific Capital on CNBC.  You know that we are getting close to the next collapse (within a year or so) when people that suggest that "bubbles" are going to end are called rude and treated gruffly.  I love the pairing here of Michael Pento and Joe Balistrino of Federated. 

While the banter between Erin Burnett and Michael Pento is entertaining and Michael simply explains that the FED has corrupted the market and therefore has distorted pricing, our friend Joe Balistrino has the money quote of the day.

At 4:24 in the video, our man Joseph explains that the question we want to know is that are treasuries in a bubble?  "Nothing is in a bubble when people want to buy it."

And doesn't that just sum it all up for you.  We don't care about a bond bubble, housing bubble, stock market bubble, or oil bubble when it is going on because it feels so darn good.  Unfortunately the mature adults in the room (Michael) are not looking at today, they are looking forward and seeing a train wreck in the making for our debt and debt funding.  Perhaps Michael should be commended rather than told he is is rude!  Meanwhile, Joseph is happy to invest his client's money in full denial that "people may just stop buying".  I guess when the the price shock manifests itself in the bond market, Joe will declare that we were in a bond bubble!

A close second in the quote of the day category is Michael's retort at 2:29 in the video - "And house prices will go up until they don't.", obviously referring to the clowns that never saw the housing bubble coming and those that continued to plow money in hopes of getting off the train before everything else fell apart.





Enjoy!

GOATMUG