PRESIDENTIAL THOUGHTS

Our country's voters (and probably a few voters that are not from our country) have cast their ballots and re-elected Barack Obama.  I am not shocked by the outcome of the election, although I did think that Romney might win the popular vote only to lose the electoral college vote, so the end result is the same.

How did we get here?  I'll list a few major themes that allowed Conservatives and Republican's to lose another major election.

NO ONE WANTS A PRESIDENT FROM MASS.
1)  Republican's selected a John Kerry-like candidate for their man.  As wonderful and honest a man as Romney is, he is a Boston RINO from the upper crust of society.  He is soft spoken, cultured, and totally dry.  Poor people and minorities would not give this guy a chance simply because he is typical "white guy" that hates them or doesn't understand them in their view.  Romney could give 100% of his annual earnings to charity and the poor and this would only reinforce to them that "rich whitey" has so much money he didn't even need it.  While we don't want to say it, many of the religious right and the African American religious did not support Romney because Mormanism is perceived as a cult.  It was not until mid October when the Rev. Billy Graham endorsed him that some Evangelicals came into the fold, but I am sure this was an issue for more than a few people.

FALSE PARTY
2)  Republican's are not conservative.  The Republican machine did a pretty good job of co-opting the Tea Party movement in 2010 and essentially neutralizing the threat of those wacky tea-party people.  Right-wing conservatives are waking up to the fact that the Republican party is very similar to the Democrat party on 90% of the issues with the exception of three social issues.  These issues are immigration, sexual orientation, and sex/life issues.  While the Republican's all speak a ton about fiscal control and limiting the size of government, they somehow don't think that applies to two major things as they end each sentence with, "We'll never cut defense spending and don't tax the wealthy".  So, effectively they don't believe in reducing government or fiscal control.   Real conservatives are tired of this bull and the facade that Republicans are their party is falling apart.

47% OR WAS IT REALLY MORE?
3)  47% is really closer to 51%.  Romney said some pretty politically incorrect things when he was video taped speaking to wealthy donors.  The only real issue with what he said was it was correct.  The unfortunate truth is that the demographics are really worse than the 47% he spoke about and we are now entering a stage where I believe it will not be easy to reverse.  When almost 1/2 of the electorate relies on government for some sort of service or income, it is difficult to sell them that "free stuff is not a good thing".  Obama has used the economic crisis to increase dependency and the future is very bleak for politicians that promise austerity and cuts to bring the US fiscal house into order.  Right now, Republicans are saying we'll cut your benefits and Democrats are casting them as evil and promising more help.  If you were the 50% of American's on some sort of government program or service, who would you support?  Another strike against the Republicans is that this 50% is the only group that is growing (having kids or coming across the border).  Hispanics, African Americans, and others have birth rates that far exceed those of conservative whites.  This growing group of voters will clearly vote for candidates and policies that force the wealthy to support them.

A SOCIAL CHANGE
4)  Social issues need to frankly go away in the Republican talking points.  Yes, conservatives love to talk about how they hate abortion, gay marriage, and other moral high-ground issues, the problem is that the US is no longer moral.  Our country is a collection of people that simply desire to distract themselves with sex, sexual expression, drug use, and technological distraction.  As long as they are "satisfied" with cheap food, a home, electronics like cable tv, games, and computer access, a sexual partner, and transportation their basic needs are met.  The secularization of America simply means they don't care what God says and they feel they have no right to judge that gay guy or child molester as long as it doesn't bother them.  Anything goes in the US today as long as it doesn't interfere with Joe 6 Pack's time in front of the toob or on his IPAD.  If the Republican's want to win, they must drop the social platform and simply answer every question about social issues with the following statement, "My personal view on XXX doesn't have anything to do with government, I think we need to concentrate on making the government smaller and more efficient and getting American's jobs.  The bigger government is, the more it crowds out the private sector.  Next question."  Until the Republicans master this statement, they will be doomed to run out a bunch of vanilla candidates that often times will be found as adulterers and will lose every election.

Now my fellow Christians might be offended that I am saying to repress my/our thoughts on social issues that are sin and an abomination in the eyes of God, but I will state emphatically that we must know the real state of the country we live in and realize that we will never have elected officials win positions of power with our current approach.  Our children have been fed daily doses of inclusiveness and have been told that all people deserve to win even if they don't make an effort.  Even in children's sports we award the worst team a trophy encouraging poor results and essentially reducing the accomplishments of the winners.  Kids are told they are told to never discern between right or wrong as wrong might be "right" for those people.  The liberal agenda has been successful in destroying the moral fiber in much of the United States and it is getting worse.  Those kids that have been the target of this re-education are now voting!.  My point here is simply that real conservatives need to focus on the issues that will put them in power, after election they can then attempt to change the tide of moral bankruptcy as leaders.

LADIES
5)  Finally, the Republican's didn't win women.  As crazy as it sounds Democrats did a great job of painting Romney (and all Republicans) as monsters that don't want to let them have contraception or abortions.  Think about this just how low our country has fallen when a single issue defines if a person votes for a candidate..  For younger women the election hinged on who would allow them to get the pill and abortions so they could have sex without consequences!!!!  When this is as far as our female voters think, we really are in trouble.  Once again, this issue underscores that voters are now more concerned with their own welfare and pleasure than that of the country.  The Declaration of Independence states that we are endowed with the Right of Life, Liberty, and Pursuit of Happiness.  We now are a nation that believes we have a right to Free Food, Free Healthcare, Free Homes, Free Phones, and Judgement Free Pleasure.  Notice that I used the word FREE not Pursuit.  The issue for the Republican party here is that they need to address the economic situation of these women and leave the moral choices out of the political arena.  Telling women that they cannot have birth control will not endear themselves to the new voting women.

RACE
6)  I planned to end this post here, but I'll state what I've thought since last election in 2008.  I am proud that my country elected Obama as our first half-black man to the office of President.  Race hustlers like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson will tell you that our country is terrible and that racism in this country is pervasive, but clearly that isn't true as we would never have elected Obama had that been the case.  A huge group of white women and white young people re-elected President Obama this cycle.  Frankly in my mind, it is simply more supportive of the fact that the US is not racist as we elected President Obama twice.  It is hard not to argue one single thing though, that African American people are racist.  Exit pooling data suggests that black voters voted 12:1 for Obama, meaning that only about 8% of African American voters went for the other guy.  That is pretty much block voting and that suggests to me group-think rather than individual assessment and analysis.  Group think is essentially racism.  My contention here is simple, that black voters voted based on the color of the candidate and not based on the merits, skills, talent, experience, or the record of the two people.  Perhaps it is like Obama said, it was revenge, but I've never seen revenge work out well for anyone involved.  Ultimately African-American unemployment is higher than it was 4 years ago and I see very little that this President has done to improve conditions for our minorities except promise them help.  Republicans better find a minority candidate that will appeal to African-American voters or else they will remain on the outside looking in if African Americans continue to vote based on color.  You might counter and simply say that Republicans just don't address or represent the issues that blacks are concerned about, but I'd simply say, till we have a viable African American candidate we'll never know.

WRAP UP - GASOLINE, GOLD, AND SILVER
To wrap this up, I've considered this election cycle to be entertaining and revealing.  I still believe that no matter who would have won, the US is in a terrible situation and the financial consequences for our collective irresponsibility will hit home very hard in the next four years.  The reality is that the winner of this election is/was going to be a big loser and receive the blame for the "big one" that is coming.  Perhaps Romney will be grateful that he didn't win as the situation unfolds.

Continue to watch the Middle East as this win puts Israel in a position that it is alone and now will act in a fashion as a person that feels cornered and unsupported.

The election of President Obama bodes well for gold and silver as Bernanke now has received a clear mandate to continue what he does best.  I also like gasoline here and am actually buying UGA.

GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments athttp://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/    

WHAT DID THOSE FINANCIAL TERRORISTS GET?

$3,850,000,000,000

As we come to the end of the debt ceiling debacle for 2011 and 2012 it is important to highlight what our fine leaders and representatives accomplished for us hard working folk.  I only want to highlight the key points and I'll add some thoughts below the summary.  In addition, I'll talk about market direction in the TRADING UPDATE section.

DEBT CEILING HIGHLIGHTS -

• The compromise allows the debt ceiling to increase by as much as $2.4 trillion dollars in total. Included is an immediate increase of $400 billion dollars. President Obama would be permitted to request another $500 billion increase in the coming months, which Congress could vote to disallow by a veto proof two-thirds margin. A further increase of between $1.2 trillion and $1.5 trillion would be available after a special committee identifies matching levels of additional spending cuts.
• The agreement calls for cuts of more than $900 billion over ten years in spending from programs, agencies and day-to-day spending. It would include security-related and non-security-related cuts. According to the Congressional Budget Office, "discretionary" spending would be decreased by $21 billion in 2012 and $42 billion in 2013.
• The agreement creates a 12-person House and Senate special committee to identify further spending cuts. The committee must complete its work by Thanksgiving - November 23 - and Congress must hold an up or down vote on the committee recommendations by December 23. The committee could overhaul the tax code or find savings in benefit programs like Medicaid, Medicare or Social Security. Congress could not modify the committee's recommendation.
• Should the special committee deadlock or should Congress reject the committee's recommendations, then automatic across the board spending cuts of at least $1.2 trillion would go into effect.
• The agreement requires that the House of Representatives and the Senate vote on a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution, although its passage is not guaranteed.
• The deal also includes changes to Pell Grants and student loan programs. Pell Grants will receive a $17 billion increase for low-income college students, which will be financed by the elimination of subsidized student loans for most graduate students

Ok, here's a little refresher before we get started.  The 2011 budget is slated to be a total of $3.85 Trillion and of that it includes borrowing almost half of the sum to meet those requirements.  That borrowing represents a $1.65 TRILLION deficit.  Stated another way, we are spending almost double what we are bring in.

OVERVIEW -
I'm fine with bullet one where they parse out the amounts over time.  Clearly the President got what he wanted which was a deal to get him through the 2012 election cycle.  Hasn't the guy ever heard about serving the public?  Who cares about the election, fix the problem!

Cuts of $900 Billion in ten years are a complete farce.  There are so many problems with the approach that these clowns took with this deal it is simply appalling.  First 2012 and 2013 cuts amount to around $70 Billion.  These are cuts that likely will happen, but amount to about 2% of the freaking budget!  Who runs a budget like this?  In other words, this $900 Billion is a complete joke.

The Special Committee is something that I feel is dangerous.  While I like the idea of a group getting together to actually work AND having their ideas implemented, it is dangerous in terms of who will be on the committee and who won't.  Effectively we already know that to be considered for the committee you must  have voted "YES" for the debt ceiling agreement.  That means that many of the fiscal conservatives in Congress will not be allowed to participate.  Ron Paul and others that actually vote based on conviction will be excluded, and he is exactly the one person that should be on the panel.

I do like that cuts will be enacted and if not, across the board cuts will come.  This is REALLY what has the Democrats shaking in their boots.  If the Republican caucus really wants to find cuts they can simply vote the recommendations down and the hammer will come.  Of course we all know that the Republicans talk a good game but don't really have a real desire to change anything so we'll see some other compromise that will keep the status-quo going for a little while longer till the house of cards completely implodes.

The Balanced Budget piece has no teeth.  It is interesting that almost all politicians say that they want a balanced budget, but somehow it never gets put to a vote.  My guess is that we'll have about 99% absenteeism on the day that vote is held.  That issue is one where everyone likes to affirm it, but no one wants it really.  If we had a balanced budget amendment, the government ponzi scheme would face limits and that can't be good for anyone that derives power from an unlimited and insatiable government.

Finally, the Pell Grant thing is also pretty laughable.  We are going to continue down the road of getting our young folks all going to college so they can get in line with the other unemployed folks with useless liberal arts degrees.  I actually would support this measure IF and only if Congress required these students to self-fund their expenses until they actually received their degrees (yes loans, working, etc) to make the cost to taxpayers riskless.  Second, the government Pell grants would only reimburse students that earned degrees in engineering, science, and other hard-core programs that were technical in nature.  Upon earning degree AND working for 2 years in the field the Pell grant would pay off or reimburse a student for books and tuition up to a maximum amount.  This would ensure that the taxpayer only pays for success and doesn't pay for Jimmy to "find himself in college" and also makes sure that the graduates that earned the degrees are employable contributors to society.  While it sounds tough, too bad.  WE HAVE ENOUGH UNEMPLOYED LAWYERS, LIBERAL ARTS LOSERS, AND DROP OUTS in this program, enough is enough.  It is our money and it is time to demand responsible stewardship of it.

And yes, all of those scientists could work to create the next generation of these (see video below) which just happen to be some of the coolest planes ever.  I really put them here to show you what $1.5 Billion will get you.  Now contemplate this, you could buy 650 of these awesome flying wings for just under 1 trillion.  My guess is that when all is said and done, we won't have anything to show for our use of $1 trillion in deficit spending this year, so if I have to spend an extra trillion or two I'd rather have the B-2s.

WHO WON?

My first take on this deal is that the Democrats won.  Yes the media is howling and stating that the Republicans won and the Tea Party members are terrorists, but that is foolish.  The Republicans caved just like I said they would.  Essentially they could have gotten anything they wanted if they were willing to push things to the limit, they weren't.  The President gets to push this issue out past 2012 so he can concentrate on the election and continue telling everyone that he inherited a financial mess.

While the Tea Party may have scored some points by getting the balanced budget onto the map and even getting the special subcommittee to make cuts, they have allowed themselves to be characterized as a radical fringe group of nut jobs willing to take down the USA to accomplish their goals.  They need to be more forceful and vocal stating that they love this country and that the politicians on the left and right simply are part of the political class that could care less about the nation and its people.  They must state this emphatically every time and demand recognition that the past policies of Bush and Obama are failures and don't work.  The liberals hate the Tea Party and attempt to label them and marginalize them in order to attempt to make others discount them.  It has worked so far, but they must fight on.

Unfortunately Republicans are the the guys that are attempting to play the game of politics the best.  You can see it in the old veterans.  They are loving having a "bad cop" group that they can blame for being on the fringe and then they can go to their constituents and blame the liberal left.  They proudly sit in the middle playing both sides off each other.  I can tell they believe that they will rise to power in 2012.  The problem is though that many of us recognize this game and the time for life-long politicians is waning.  We need leaders that make hard choices and choose the side of long term financial strength for our country rather than another election cycle victory. 

Here is a list of those that voted for and against the bill in Congress -

Here is a list of those that voted for and against the bill in the Senate -

I will do a trading update this evening.  Please drop by again to view this post.  http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

GOATMUG

Goatmug is an investor that cares about you and your family. Goatmug's Blog - Financial Perspectives From The Mountain Top is a collection of thoughts on our economy and how it impacts the lives of investors and average people. While several specific investments are named in many of his posts, these articles are simply invitations for you to do your own research and reference to these securities does not constitute financial advice. Your situation is complex and unique and you should seek professional assistance with your trading and investing. Please visit Goatmug and share your comments at http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/