tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6758770623162438423.post6651829635148602899..comments2023-09-28T04:27:48.195-07:00Comments on Goatmug Blog - Financial Perspectives from the Mountain Top: WHAT WE'VE GOT HERE IS A FAILURE TO COMMUNICATEGoatmughttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06717166521459240516noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6758770623162438423.post-57428273355313438912010-07-27T15:05:40.120-07:002010-07-27T15:05:40.120-07:00Dacian,
Yep, you nailed it. No one really knows w...Dacian,<br />Yep, you nailed it. No one really knows what is going to happen in the short run, and frankly, the long run actual events are difficult to predict. In fact, a lot of bloggers and traders just add to the noise.<br />I think what I'm hoping to do with this blog is document what is going on and try to make some clarity of what might happen if A or B come about. This tool (blog) has been great because it helps crystallize my thoughts, but also reveals where I miss things over time. I have also noticed how I might have some ideas of how things might play out, but those things actually are counter to each other. <br />This on-going rant of mine has been humbling and also been a re-inforcer to me that what I'm doing is helpful and on track. <br />Ultimately so many of us hear the message that we are to invest and buy and hold and not question what is going on around us. I obviously question what is going on, but also question what I am saying and what I'm assuming, cause I've been wrong before and will probably be wrong again. The key in this environment is to be defensive, preserve capital, and try to capture gains on longer term trades that we can guess might be correct. <br />The simplest of these seems to be a bet on emerging countries with low to no debt and a growing middle class. That is the longer term theme while the slowdown in the US is the back drop that I center on to highlight why that strategy over the next 10 years will be really valuable to readers.<br /><br />Dacian, thanks for stopping in as always.<br /><br />GoatmugGoatmughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06717166521459240516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6758770623162438423.post-76137861245727827202010-07-27T13:18:44.107-07:002010-07-27T13:18:44.107-07:00"IF they did declare the recession over, this..."IF they did declare the recession over, this data would tell us that we were going to double dip with all doubt removed."<br /><br />All over the place you have so-called contrarians these days: if it's obvious we're slowing down/double dipping that means we don't; if the market is selling is time to buy; if we have a golf natural disaster it means we don't, I buy BP because all suckers are selling (and I'm smart), etc. etc.<br /><br />All the blogs out there I read, traders & the likes are contrarians. I believe these contrarians will be served a lesson rather soon...Daciannoreply@blogger.com